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recession watch

who cares

Bush On The Recession: "The Average Person Doesn't Really Care What We Call It"

Do you care whether or not we're in a recession? If so, do you care what people call whatever it is that we're in? President Bush thinks that you don't. He gave a press conference this morning in which he blasted congress for blocking his economy-fixing legislation, according to CNN:
"I repeatedly submitted proposal to help address the problems. Time after time, Congress chose to block them," he said.
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subprime meltdown

1 in 33 Homeowners Predicted To Be In Foreclosure Within Next 2 Years

For those of you hoping that foreclosure crises has hit bottom, we've got some bad news. A new report released by the The Pew Charitable Trusts says that 1 in 33 homeowners is expected to be in foreclosure over the next two years, due primarily to subprime mortgages made in 2005 and 2006. More »

American Airlines lost a bunch of money this quarter. Ruh-roh. [NYT]

recession watch

WaMu CEO Compares Mortgage Meltdown To The Great Depression

gottahavedebt.jpgWaMu announced today that they lost $1.14 billion in the first-quarter and CEO Kerry Killinger said that nothing of this scale had happened "since the Great Depression." Comforting!
"Nothing of this scale has happened since the Great Depression," Chief Executive Kerry Killinger said at WaMu's annual meeting. "This is the toughest credit cycle I have seen in my years in the industry."
WaMu says it will cut 3,000 more jobs, including that of Mary Pugh, chair of their finance committee who "had been fiercely criticized for failing to protect Washington Mutual from overexposure to subprime and other risky mortgages," according to Reuters. A Loss and a Shake-up at Washington Mutual [NYT]
(Photo:Maulleigh)

Consumer Confidence is now at a 26-year low. Do you need a hug? [Marketwatch]

recession watch

At What Point Is A Recession Really Just A Depression?

Marketplace Money asks former Labor secretary and Berkeley professor Robert Reich to explain the difference between a recession and a depression—and to tell us what to do about the ugly consumer spending paradox we find ourselves in.
Vigeland: What are the traditional definitions of a recession first and also a depression? How are they different?
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Consumer Confidence is now at a 16 year low, according to the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers. [Reuters]

recession watch

Most Americans Say They Will Not Spend Their Stimulus Checks

The majority of Americans plan to save their stimulus checks or use them to pay off debt, says a new survey.
A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll found that 41% of respondents plan to use their rebates to pay off bills, and 32% will put the money in savings. Just 21% of those polled intend to spend the money, while 3% said they will donate the extra money to charity.
This could cause some problems:
Jared Bernstein, an Economic Policy Institute senior economist, notes that taxpayers have in the past spent half to two-thirds of their rebate checks. However, he points out that the current economic conditions are unique.
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JP Morgan has raised its Bear Stearns offer from $2 to $10. [NYT]

The New York Times ponders: How could irresponsible mortgage lending "take out take out the whole global financial system?" [NYT]

Amsterdam doesn't want your stinking worthless U.S. currency. [Reuters]

recession watch

Another Deep Rate Cut From The Fed

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee today announced a rate cut of 75 basis points to 2-1/4 percent. More »

The Freakonomics blog says we're in a recession. Who the hell are we to argue? [Freakonomics]

recession watch

Foreclosures Hit An All Time High As Many Homeowners Simply Give Up

The Mortgage Bankers Association says that foreclosures have hit an all-time high as more and more borrowers with adjustable rate mortgages walk away from their homes before their payments increase. More »

Dr. Housing Bubble offers some additional insight into Countrywide's Option ARM fiasco.
Initially, the lenders gave the impression that the majority of these loans were being given out to sophisticated investors who couldn't document their $500,000 income and had better places to put their money to work. Clearly this wasn't the case as we are seeing that 71% of the people are electing for the lowest of the low payments. Of course when the market in California was ripping it up by seeing 20%+ appreciation each year, making the minimum payment made sense because you were going to sell in 1 to 2 years and pocket the change. Heck, it was cheaper than renting!
[Dr. Housing Bubble]

credit crunch

Fed Chairman Asks Banks To Forgive Mortgage Debt

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is urging lenders to "forgive portions of mortgage debt held by homeowners at risk of defaulting," says Bloomberg. More »

recession watch

$4 Gas By Spring?

The New York Times says that some experts are predicting $4 gas by the Spring.
Gasoline prices, which for months lagged the big run-up in the price of oil, are suddenly rising quickly, with some experts fearing they could hit $4 a gallon by spring. Diesel is hitting new records daily and oil closed at an all-time high on Tuesday of $100.88 a barrel.
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recession watch

Walmart Is Starting To Worry

Previously exuberant Walmart is getting a little worried about the economy, according to CNNMoney.
"No one has a crystal ball to look into the economic future, but we know the economy will be a critical factor this year," Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said in a recorded call discussing the retailer's results..."Some customers were a little more cautious about their spending in January," Scott said. "That is why we will continue to be diligent in improving our business in every way."
This non-statement is quite a change from the previously excited predictions Lee Scott shared before the Holidays:
"I feel we are well positioned for an economic downturn," Scott said. "Our low prices and low-cost business model should give us an advantage over other retailers if things get more difficult for consumers."
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