The official declarer of such things has announced that the Great Recession is over, and it ended in Jun 2009. So why doesn’t it feel that way?
Well, the National Bureau of Economic Research committee took pains to note that announcing the end date of the recession only means identifying the point at which it stopped getting worse. So, a long part of the recovery is going to feel and look exactly like what happened on the way down, except getting gradually better instead of gradually worse.
Bust out the muffled noisemakers.
Business Cycle Dating Committee [National Bureau of Economic Research]
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So the recession ended about the same time they officially announced it had begun.
Haha it’s always like that. They can only look back and months later tell you the most obvious things.
So it logically follows that there is absolutely no way pundits would know the “instant” we are out of a great recession/depression until months later.
So will they retroactively resume it once the double-dip clicks in?
By muffled noisemakers, I’m going to assume you mean muffled sobs of cautious hope, sustained misery, and mildly manic desperation, tinged with a lining that isn’t so much silver, but more of a muddy grey mixed with a bad pea green color.
Exactly.
The F*ck it is..
Well put, my thoughts exactly.
+1
Dear National Bureau of Economic Research:
Please inform my retirement fund of this news.
Thanks!
While you’re at it, inform my employer, so they can reinstate my 5% wage reduction, suspension of annual raises, 401(k) match and pension.
And my employer, so I don’t get laid off tomorrow (as all indications suggest I will).
oh! good luck with that.
Tell that to the people comprising the 10% unemployment rate. I’m sure they’ll be thrilled. /snark
Breaking news! Constantly growing unemployment = recovery!
I mean, it’s GROWING after all.
It is?
http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=usunemployment&met=unemployment_rate#met=unemployment_rate&tdim=true
Private sector is turning around, at least:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2010/09/06/lets-stop-torturing-facts-and-start-working-together
Go take the U-6 and see how that’s working for you. And sure, linking to the WHITE HOUSE is just the bastion of non-partisan, honest, frank news. Think they might have a dog in this hunt to show unemployment is going down?
I have no idea what “Go take the U-6 and see how that’s working for you” and I think characterizing the Bureau of Labor Statistics as a partisan organization is a little conspiratorial.
I suppose there are benefits to being so broke that the recession didn’t feel so bad…
Spin spin spin the recession will be over when people get their jobs back
unfortunately those jobs are never coming back. The ability for companies to maintain profit by eliminating a percentage of jobs and all the costs associated with each job means that they have realized they did not need that person in the first place. To have someone doing the job of 2 people while paying them less they were making doing 1 job means they get double the productivity at less the cost.
If companies wanted to really get themselves moving again they would actually lower the prices of consumer goods to stimulate spending which stimulate profits, which stimulates job growth but that is not how they think. Instead it is slash jobs, raise prices, and watch profits maintain.
These jobs are not coming back, it sucks, but it is the truth.
I think you’re right – this happened in our office. We’re down from 15 1/2 people to 12 (one person who floated between our department and another department is gone as well, accounting for the 1/2). The rest of us are left with doing more work, with fewer hours allowed as overtime was strictly regulated. A lot of us are just plain mentally exhausted.
Management finally allowed us to hire one more person back. So now we’re training her on top of all the other work. Can’t win.
Yes, this is called “worker productivity.” I hear about it all the time on Bloomberg radio. Companies are doing better now because “worker productivity has improved to a level where companies are able to realize growth/profits/blah blah blah.” I’ve learned how loud it sounds when I scream in my car. &%#*%@@@!!!
And the problem is that many people actually feel that “increased worker productivity” means “improving the business landscape.” Even some of the poor suckers who are forced to work 10-hour days because their bosses have laid off 30% of the work force buy into this.
To bad your wrong about that. The recession does not end when people get their jobs back. It more ends when there is positive growth in the GDP which happened back in late 2009. We are recovering from the recession.
On a side note don’t really expect unemployment to really go below 6 or 7 percent. The likelihood of seeing 5% unemployment isn’t going to come back for years.
I think there is way too much emphasis put on GDP. They acknowledge other macroeconomic factors, but GDP still seems carry most of the weight. Bush used it to say there wasn’t a recession and Obama is using it to say that we’re out. I think mean salaries, real unemployments/employment rates (that include discouraged workers), deficits, etc. should have more weighting in these measures.
Wait… I thought a recession meant the economy was recessed, not “recessing”. So there is no recession as long as the economy is not getting worse? What do you call what we are in right now?
A “recovery”, I believe.
Fucked, I believe.
I Don’t Think So. They may sit up in their little puzzle palaces thinking that the world spins in their direction, but out in the Real World, down in the trenches, we still are slogging out out, struggling to keep our jobs and lives intact.
And how is that different from any other day?
I won’t believe it until I see the President standing in front of a big “mission accomplished” banner. I mean that’s the only legit way to know we are really done with something.
My grandfather used to say that a drought isn’t really over until the well gets back to its normal level. You may get a rain after a 3 year drought but unless you get a few months of rainy days the water level on the well is going to still be low. The rain was a step in the right direction but the effects of the drought are still going on.
That’s probably one of the best analogies I’ve ever heard. Until our well fills back up, this recession isn’t anywhere near over.
I don’t want the well to fill back up like it did before. It was half full of shit when it was full up last time. I don’t mind if the well is half empty as long as it’s actual water, and not more bullshit.
if your grandfather was and economist, and a drought was an economy, you’d be on to something.
The predictable response is “Like hell the recession’s over!” But you can only make that response if you fail to realize that the official definition of a recession is probably vastly different than what you think it is.
You mean that definition “two quarters of negative GDP growth”? Go back and look at GDP growth and see if that matches to when they said it “began”.
It doesn’t.
All of the data is right there on the linked website: http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html
Well I am the official declarer of bullshit.
And I’m calling bullshit.
what’s the number? I wanna call it too
The recession IS most decidedly over … for businesses. By all reports they’re sitting on massive cash piles and are still accumulating it by the truckload. The recession is NOT over for consumers, who remain cash-starved, between 12-18% unemployed depending on whom you talk to, and those who are working haven’t had raises in a couple years. Many have lost value in their homes and their 401ks and other investments.
Economists pretty much only concern themselves with when a recession is over for businesses. The economic status of consumers is irrelevant to them … for the most part. The only measure they have of consumer-economic health are “consumer confidence indexes,” which are essentially subjective in nature and are therefore worthless.
So. . .businesses are accumulating piles of cash, but consumers aren’t spending.
Neat trick.
Stick around – the next trick involves a bunny.
Yes indeed. See e.g. Bloomberg. That’s not the only place this has been reported.
Hey Farva, what’s the name of that restaurant you like with all the goofy shit on the wall and the mozzarella sticks?
Shenanigan’s? You’re talking about Shenanigan’s, right?
“Recession” is a measure of economic output, not jobs or income.
+1
I just looked at the GDP graphs given by the NBER. June definitely did mark the end of the recession by the economic definition. Unfortunately, it seems most individuals have a very limited grasp on the business cycle and how it is divided.
recession ended? we want the jobs BACK! NO JOBS? Still recession then.
They want us to think that. they try so hard to convince us to send our money to them. NO THANKS
A recession doesn’t simply mean “lots of jobs lost”. It’s a measure of economic activity. Otherwise, they’d call it “lots of jobs lost” instead of “recession”.
Does this mean that the 20 million unemployed can go back to work i hope so.
Having a job is a lagging indicator.
It’s over? Someone please inform my boss. I was working 45 hours/week earlier this year. I’ve been working 25 a week the last two months. My paycheck says we’re still in a recession.
Economics is as trustworthy as astrology and religion.
Add to that chiropractics.
In celebration my employers decided to lay me off. yippie.
Recession and recovery are two different things. I already believed for a while that the recession stopped around sometime last year. We’ve been in a period of “recovery” since then, but the problem is we’re not recovering fast enough — and, frankly, there is no guarantee we ever will recover back to the point where our economy was prior to the recession.
And here’s the possible grim reality: it could be that where our economy was years ago was over-inflated and a bubble (thanks to the housing boondoggle) that had to burst. And that it did. So maybe we’re in a period now reflecting what the true value of our economy is — that is, our economy doesn’t actually produce much of anything, outside of the service industries.
So….is there a term for the economy being stagnant?
I’m inventing one right now.
A Doldrums Economy
I know I’m very fortunate, but my employer is hiring like mad and the recession has not affected my income. I have found wonderful bargains and spent more than ever since the recession started (bought a four year old high end convertible and a 20 year old yacht I couldn’t have attained without the nationwide fire sale).
I feel enough compassion to want us out of the recession, but it really has treated me well.
Yes. You are extremely lucky indeed. Not to sound preachy, but I hope charitable giving for those less fortunate is on your list of expenses, too.
Yay. Does this mean my (former) employer will be offering me my job back?
I didn’t think so.
As they were saying this, was there a “Mission Accomplished” banner behind them?
Unless you live in Oneida County in New York
It is no wonder why no one trusts the government or groups like this.
Wow.. Really? Another year without a raise for me.. Another year of raising food prices, electricity and energy prices, unemployment hasn’t dropped worth a crap and my neighbors which lost their jobs, still don’t have jobs..
Sounds like it’s over to me..
These freaking people are so out of the loop as to what is actually happening in the world and to the blue collar workers.. This just proves this fact.
+1. You said exactly what I was thinking. If one more person says “You should be thankful to have your job,” I’ll hit them. For me, it will really be over when I can actually find a decent job somewhere else so I can escape. Until that’s feasible, no way.
Believe the lie. – X Files
All Lies Lead to the Truth.
It doesn’t feel that way because commercial real-estate is vacant and the supply is increasing steadily, people are out of work and can’t find a job that pays them close to what they were making before the merde hit the ventilateur, people can’t sell the house they paid double or triple what it was really worth, and an increasing majority of people believe that they are getting screwed while other people who didn’t earn it are getting a gravy train.
So, according to some overpaid pencil pushers and think tank types, the recession has been over for 14 months. What a load of crap. Come out into the real world, and get a real job with a lower than median wage, and THEN TELL ME IT’S OVER. Jerks.
The National Bureau of Economic Research states clearly on their web page that the recesison between 2007 and 2009 IS over; however, New Mexico states that it is still in a recession as are other states.
For everyone who is rich, it is over with…the vast majority of us are still in the shit!
We seriously need to teach basic economics in high school. Way too many people here think that just because we still have high unemployment we are still in a recession. No seems to realize that job growth lags behind economic growth. Meaning its going to take time for jobs to come back.
It’s over, huh? Yippie Ki Yay, Motherfuckers.