Read Pachter's Lips: No New Consoles Till 2013
Bad news for gamers who are dreaming of an Xbox 361, PlayStation 4 or Wiii. You won't be playing hovercraft Mario Kart or holographic Halo until well into President Palin's first term.
Wedbrush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter, the video game world's chief tea leaf reader, predicted in an electronics industry newsletter that the next wave of consoles won't hit shelves until 2013... if ever. That would mean at least seven years between iterations of the big three console makers' systems, surpassing the industry standard of five.
We do not expect the ‘next' generation to begin before 2013, if at all," Pachter said. "We remain convinced that the publishers will resist the introduction of any video game hardware technology that requires a refresh of software, as the publishers have as yet to capitalise on the immense investments made in being competitive in the current cycle.
Not enough people are buying consoles that are out there, so gaming companies don't think a new generation justifies the upfront costs of a new round. And yet dwindling sales are always cited as the impetus for a new lineup of consoles. So confusing.
The bottom line is if you're holding out hope for a new round of consoles to drive the price down on that Xbox 360 you've been eying, don't let the hope keep you from taking the plunge. Instead, let the fact that they break all the time keep you away.
Analyst: No New Console Cycle Before 2013 [Edge Online]
(Photo: PhilVillarreal)
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Comments:
PSP2 isn't a real new system... apparently it is a PSP with a new form-factor, and internal storage instead of a UMD drive.
"Not enough people are buying consoles that are out there, so gaming companies don't think a new generation justifies the upfront costs of a new round."
This actually isn't the real issue, I don't think. You should look at the costs of developing -games- for the consoles. Developers are already having a tough time staying competitive with the cost of developing for the current generation. A new generation of console development would bankrupt most of the publishers out there (aside from EA and Activision... maybe SquareEnix).
Nintendo could easily refresh their current hardware with better graphics (next rev GPU from ATI) and and stronger processor (faster CPU) to put them in the same league as the X-Box and PS3. Combined with the controllers, that could force Sony and Microsoft to look into next gen consoles earlier than expected. I think the ball is really in Mario's court right now.
You mean get a PS3, 360's are too expensive, (Extra $100 for a [smaller] Hard drive which you'll need to patch ,save, or buy games. another $100 for WiFi) makes it the same price as a PS3 now (possible price cut coming soon too)
and another $50/year to play online/use NetFlix and you still have a system that'll break and doesnt have BluRay.
@Hobz
Totally agreed. Judging from the astronomical sales the Wii has had, they're doing alright. Judging from the number of games my wife has bought, programmers can't be doing that badly either. Another console that's light on heat/power but with enough horsepower to handle a hidef screen would be great.
@TinkishDelight: i've said this before, although not possibly online- the Wii is a great concept console, but there are definite shortcomings - the design of the wiimote and nunchuck make it difficult to play traditional games, which is why the wii has its own style of games. Most people that i know who have a wii also have either an xbox360 or a PS3, since those have a "traditional" style of games (or they just use their PC for gaming)
I see this as a good thing, both for the industry and the everyday gamer. There's no need to release a costly new system every 5 years, even with the advancements we make in technology on a regular basis. Refer to generations past: the longer the hardware was out, the better the developers learned how to utilize the hardware's full potential. Look at the differences between Sonic and Sonic 3 or Halo and Halo 2. The current generation of systems still have a lot of potential to be unlocked.
But yeah, the Wii could use an HD upgrade. I think we can all agree on that :-)
From other articles I've read, the main push for extending console life-cycles is coming from the publishers.
Technology has finally caught up with reality. There's no doubt games could look like Pixar films (or better)...but developers/publishers would never come close to earning a profit. Why release fancy hardware if no developer has the budget to utilize it?
"...if at all..."
Mr. Pachter severely underestimates how much the big three like money.
Anyone who has any knowledge of video games at all knows that a new hardware generation is how the industry reboots, and forces their consumers to buy more hardware. After all, no one wants to miss out on the hot new titles because they don't have the hardware to run it on. There is little evidence, given the history of these three companies, that they wouldn't eventually want to put out a new generation of hardware, and there's little indication that they wouldn't be able to, given the continuing trend of revolutionary developments in hardware capability.
To imply that these companies might never put out new hardware only convinces me that Mr. Pachter has no idea what he's talking about.
@grapedog: Oh, and if they would run well on a PC/Mac that's more than two years old, that would be great.
@AlexDitto: Exactly right. "If at all" is either ridiculous hyperbole or Pachter's tipping his ignorance. The game industry has always operated in hardware waves, and will continue to do so.
@grapedog: OH cool, PC-over-console trolls in Consumerist. Guess what? Many play PC and console games, and love them both, and would clearly miss out on amazing titles if they shared your restrictive view as to either. Join me in my even-handed enjoyment of games regardless of medium. You won't regret it.
See I don't think anyone did it right this generation:
- Microsoft has a good console in terms of what it can do and the 360 benefits from the large library of games available for it. Unfortunately, the known and continuing hardware failures with the system have soured many consumers (myself included) from buying.
- Sony has a dependable console hardware wise, but the game library lacks depth, has minimal exclusives and unlike its predecessor, virtually NO RPGs. Sony also shot themselves in the foot by picking such a high price point.
- The Wii has been a monster success, at least amongst casual gamers, but outside of Nintendo offerings (Wii Fit, Wii Sports, Mario Kart, Mario Galaxy, Metroid Prime, Super Smash Brothers) there's a SEVERE lack of quality games on this console. Also the lower processing power of the console means that the latest releases often bypass it completely. Even when they are released on Wii, they must be modified and "stripped down" to work within the confines of the system. Want to play Call of Duty 4, Street Fighter IV, Resident Evil 5 or UFC: Undisputed? Sorry, not on the Wii. The fact most major releases skip the console is a big reason more people haven't been buying, even though the system is a success by most standards.
I think there's still room for a traditional home console but the console makers have to find that magic formula: A dependable piece of hardware that gets the job done without being too expensive and a solid library of games to appeal to a wide range of gamers. Nintendo did it with the SNES, Sony did it with the first two Playstations.
Someone's gotta do it next time. Technology keeps moving forward, eventually we'll reach a point where new consoles will be necessary.
@marsneedsrabbits: Don't worry, there's still an entire universe out there that hasn't been touched.
You guys need to read the actual article. He's specifically talking about MS/Sony/Nintendo switching to an OnLive-type of technology. Where consoles are nothing more than streaming data hubs. That way they wouldn't have to come out with new hardware ever again.
@Hobz: I agree that Nintendo is probably the only console that would be likely to break out a new version "soon" as 2013 seems to fit with the other timelines for MS and Sony are trying to follow.
Then again, Nintendo hasn't started busting out the alternate Wii colours yet so it could still be a couple of years before we start seeing anything from the big N that has real onboard HD support.
Essay rant about how a new generation would somewhat mess things up, mostly Rock Band:
As the Wii is always getting the short end of the stick with multi-console games, Wii sometimes getting PS2 ports while 360 and PS3 get full versions, Nintendo should release a new console.
One of the worst examples was the first Rock Band game. On Wii it didn't play online, you couldn't choose your characters (the background being pre-rendered video), you couldn't download songs, the entire game was gimped to be roughly the same game as the PS2 version. Rock Band 2 on the Wii is almost fully featured minus the custom tattoos and the downloadable back catalog (though new releases are downloadable).
Backwards compatibility is another issue for all consoles, especially with Rock Band downloadable songs. On 360 and PS3 there are about 500 downloadable songs in addition to disc songs. A new generation of consoles would mean the player would have to blow another $1000 to get them all. Realistically the player wouldn't be buying all the songs anyway because some songs are in niche genres like country (Toby Keith) and shred metal (Yngwie Malmsteen).
Nintendo is pretty good about backwards compatibility, Wii plays almost all GameCube games except the Game Boy Player and the network features of some other games, but the DS doesn't play original Game Boy games and the DSi only plays DS games (and not even games that take a Game Boy Advance game slot like Pokemon Diamond/Pearl importing from the old games, Guitar Hero On Tour's fret buttons, rumble paks).
I'm pretty sure there could be an Export Channel for your Wii to export all your data to an SD card so that you wouldn't lose your Super Smash Bros Brawl save (some saved games can't be copied to an SD card). The Wii could read GameCube memory cards.
Either Nintendo comes out first with a new console (and please make the flagship Mario game easier, Galaxy was nigh on impossible), or Nintendo folds and starts making games for PS4 and 720 (not 361). Since the latter isn't happening, the former must be the case.
PS2 games are still being sold new and that came out in 2000, and PS1 had games coming out a little into the PS2's lifespan, so Sony's going for the long haul. Microsoft might come out with a 361 which would be a 360 that doesn't break as opposed to a 720 that would be all new stuff.
@marsneedsrabbits: I thought there was a 1 console:1 Mario game ratio. I'd love to see another Mario game for the DS too.
@heybtbm: What article are you reading? He's clearly talking about a new hardware cycle, and there's nothing about OnLive or streaming software. Besides the nonsensical "if ever" comment, he's pretty spot on about publishers resisting a new hardware move. It took them years to figure out the Cell processor, why would they want to up and switch what they are programming for?
Good! it's bad enough kids are glued to the damn TV all day and getting fatter and fatter. no new consoles mean they'll hopefully grow tired (or just grow up)and use their time wisely. now, i'll be honest, i've had my share of drunk halo parties and 420 friendly Wii parties, but nothing beats my SNES and N64. F#@! new technology... back to the "classics!"
and PALIN has my VOTE!
haha!
Next year will mark the 25th anniversary from when Nintendo released the original NES in the US. With the Wii continuing to sell like hotcakes, I can't see why they would push consumers to yet another highly difficult to obtain console. However, it's an opportunity (25th anniversary) that only comes once.
NES skinned/themed Wii?
Maybe that's why so many ppl get the RROD. I'm on my first XBOX 360, and it is 2 years old. I keep it flat, cool and clean.
So, Wait -
No new consoles until hell freezes over?
I don't know; seems like an awful long time. I'm betting they give in and push new consoles out for us before that happens
;-)
Yes I know that joke has been iterated in some form or another in this thread already. Had to get my particular lick in there, though. And I couldn't find hell freezing over references anywhere yet! :-)

























PSP 2 is supposed to be out in December according to rumors.