In other news: Current administration on the way out is a bunch of chickenshyte assholes that didn't want to say the R word until after the election.

ABOUT BLEEDIN' TIME THEY ADMITTED IT!

I remember how, several months ago, the government was on all sorts of public media outlets stressing how "It's not a recession unless [large number of criteria]! We haven't met [some esoteric rubric], so technically we're not in a recession yet!"

Yeah, that's like when you're a kid and you try and argue "Well I didn't mean to punch you. I was punching the air and your face got in the way!"

O RLY?

"Recession" has a specific definition. A bad economy doesn't equal a recession any more than the sun going behind a cloud is an eclipse.

So, are we now changing the definition of "Recession"?

I like the "Department of No Shit" tag. That is awesome.

@PunditGuy: It has many specific definitions. I think the one you are talking about is defined by a group that has a vested interested in there not being a recession.

The National Bureau of Economic Research is not the government. It is a private research group with a governmenty sounding name.

[en.wikipedia.org]

Ohhhh now i get it... Now that its ok to blame a new president lets put allll the cards on the table. Hmmm... What will Obama do? He only has two options really.

1: Make false predictions and have everyone pissed in a few years when the economy isnt back to normal.

2: Make realistic predictions and have everyone pissed that its going to take so long to fix.

3: Go ahead and take his 1,000 vacation days in advance and not care.

Win/Win if you ask me.

Three options... Edit button for the win.

@NeonNoodle: Win/Win/Win?

but the fundamentals are still strong, right?

... right? (crickets)

At least Obama can't raise taxes now right?

...right? (crickets)

Bush, Helicopter Ben and that fruitloop Paulson have been denying that we're in a recession all year. I'd bet 1 pound of gold that they'll continue to deny for the rest of the year.

I sort of don't see what the big deal is. i mean, i take that back...i do, it's sad that people have lost their jobs and that many people have lost money in their 401ks and things...but these sorts of things happen all over the world...it's the cycle of life. and to be honest, in comparison to many other countries, we still have it pretty damn good. it seems that our biggest worry is 'how will i pay for christmas.' while in other countries it's 'how will i pay for my next meal.'

i just think americans are so used to "winning" everything all the time that when something like this happens, it's like 'OMG WE HAVE TO BLAME SOMEONE!!!!' i agree that it could have been prevented to an extent, but come on people...it happens. some countries have real problems. even our poorest people have high speed internet, a cell phone, and cable television.

From the Department of Economic Definitions Despite Economic Emotions, coming together with the Department of People Against The Department of the Doom And Gloom:

It has not been a recession since Dec 07. kthx.

President Bush: "Mission Accomplished!"

@concordia: I don't think "GDP contraction for X months" is "some esoteric rubric". Unless you're an uneducated idiot.

If anything, we're through the recession and about to hit a depression. Gotta love deflation!

@Landru: The normally accepted definition is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. This is not the yardstick by which the NREB is measuring the economy.

@concordia: The traditional definition of a recession is 2+ quarters of negative economic growth (contraction). Hardly esoteric. AND it hasn't officially been met yet. Almost certainly it will, but technically it hasn't.

Now, this new report saying we've been in one for a year is using "a large number of criteria" and an "esoteric rubric" to boot.

"All they had to do was listen to Wal-Mart. Wal-Mart knew what was up. They were already getting "positioned for an economic downturn" back in October, 07."

What will really twist your noodle is: Would the recession ever have happened if Wal-Mart didn't position itself to enter one in the first place?

...So we're no longer "a nation of whiners"? Phew!

@LastVigilante: Quoth Neo, "Whoa."

@PunditGuy: To add to the other commentators, the group that officially declares recessions also usually waits a couple of years to examine all the data before declaring a recession. Not exactly useful for current or near term planning.

Basically what we have hear is something that looks like a dog and sounds like a dog, but it wont be officially able to be called a dog for another couple of years. I think its pretty safe to assume though that we are dealing with a dog/recession.

@gunboats: Actually it is better than the government because it is who the government turns to for officially declaring when a recession occurs.

BEA - Recession: How is that defined?
The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private non-profit research organization that focuses on understanding the U.S. economy. The NBER recession is a monthly concept that takes account of a number of monthly indicators-such as employment, personal income, and industrial production-as well as quarterly GDP growth. Therefore, while negative GDP growth and recessions closely track each other, the consideration by the NBER of the monthly indicators, especially employment, means that the identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth does not always hold.

@PunditGuy: Okay here is the official way a recesion is declared by the people who are in charge of calling a recesion, the National Bureau of Economic Research(aka the ones qouted in the article).

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades.

In choosing the dates of business-cycle turning points, we follow standard procedures to assure continuity in the chronology. Because a recession influences the economy broadly and is not confined to one sector, we emphasize economy-wide measures of economic activity. We view real GDP as the single best measure of aggregate economic activity. In determining whether a recession has occurred and in identifying the approximate dates of the peak and the trough, we therefore place considerable weight on the estimates of real GDP issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the U.S. Department of Commerce. The traditional role of the committee is to maintain a monthly chronology, however, and the BEA's real GDP estimates are only available quarterly. For this reason, we refer to a variety of monthly indicators to determine the months of peaks and troughs.

The committee places particular emphasis on two monthly measures of activity across the entire economy: (1) personal income less transfer payments, in real terms and (2) employment. In addition, we refer to two indicators with coverage primarily of manufacturing and goods: (3) industrial production and (4) the volume of sales of the manufacturing and wholesale-retail sectors adjusted for price changes. We also look at monthly estimates of real GDP such as those prepared by Macroeconomic Advisers (see [www.macroadvisers.com]). Although these indicators are the most important measures considered by the NBER in developing its business cycle chronology, there is no fixed rule about which other measures contribute information to the process.

The committee's approach to determining the dates of turning points is retrospective. We wait until sufficient data are available to avoid the need for major revisions. In particular, in determining the date of a peak in activity, and thus the onset of recession, we wait until we are confident that, even in the event that activity begins to rise again immediately, it has declined enough to meet the criterion of depth. As a result, we tend to wait to identify a peak until many months after it actually occurs.

NBER - Recession Dating Procedure

BEA - Recession: How is that defined?

@Bladefist: Well their analysis is a little bit more in depth than yours, also they are the ones that officially declare when a recession begins and ends, so they have that going for them.....

@Tmoney02: I hate to beat a dead horse. But we all know what a recession is. And no, we were not in a _@$@$ recession.

Were we _heading_ to a recession, but along the way, still increasing our GDP? Sure.

@no.no.notorious:

Some of us can only *wish* that our biggest worry is "how will I pay for Christmas".

A lot of middle-aged and older Americans who have done everything "right" in terms of getting educated, following an upward career path, investing for retirement and kids' college tuitions, etc. are suddenly finding themselves unemployed, bereft of savings, and potentially losing their homes to mortgage holders. Not exactly business as usual. So yeah, we're whining.

@kid_moe:

Bingo!

@Landru: Correct me if I'm wrong, but that "group" that has a vested interest in there *not* being a recession would roughly be just about all 300,000,000 people living in the United States and many hundreds of millions of people abroad.

It is far more nefarious to harp on the perpetual recession (those on the far right and far left) than to be accurate in terminology (generally, those in the mainstream, minus mainstream articles now and again).

By any accurate account, it would seem as though we've begun a recession in August of 2008 and this will be affirmed by March of 2009. Anybody who wants to expand it or contract it to, say, January 22nd, 2001 to January 20th, 2009, is probably politically motivated.

@Bladefist: If you read my other comments you would know that increasing the GDP means nothing. From the BEA - While gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity, the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is not an official designation.....The NBER recession is a monthly concept that takes account of a number of monthly indicators-such as employment, personal income, and industrial production-as well as quarterly GDP growth. Therefore, while negative GDP growth and recessions closely track each other, the consideration by the NBER of the monthly indicators, especially employment, means that the identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth does not always hold.

BEA - Recession: How is that defined?

You may not be in a recesion or feel one but the country is and does.

/Insert the more you know Star here

@krispykrink:

Don't forget Nancy Pelosi and her super duper "the sky is falling" pep-talks. This is NOT a one party thing, I wish everyone would get over taking sides with any crony political party.

@Trai_Dep:

Nope, just a nation of "re-definers".

@Tmoney02:

So, in other words; when is a rose not a rose? When it's a recession.

I wish xmas was my biggest stress. No instead, I'm jobless and bipolar. The town I live in just lost the largest employer for the past century. We have the highest unemployment rate in our state.I've also got $9k left on my student loans. So while I may live in the US, I'm not so well off my only concern is xmas. I wish that was my only concern. I'm tired of worrying about when my next manic or depressive episode going to hit me and how long it's going to take me to crawl out of that hell. So I'd look around before claiming all American's are just sitting around trying to figure out how they're going to swing xmas this year.

@costanza007: Where did I mention a specific party? I'm just talking about the dipsticks that live in denial. As for Pelosi, you can send her to the gallows with Bush. Try taking off the BS "everyone is either a liberal or conservative" glasses, they don't work. If I had my way, I'd execute everyone registered as both D's and R's, preferably with sharks with friken lazers on their heads.

Wow, this totally changes my view of the current presidency, the future presidency, the world economy, the US economy, my own personal financial future, maybe even the price of tea in China! Wait, no it doesn't, it's just an application of a technical term to a period of economic stagnation which has lasted many months and will continue to do so for many more. Amazing how folks around here use this sort of story (I like the very appropriate "DEPARTMENT OF NO SHIT" tag) as a launch point for partisan prattle.

hasn't John Stewart/The Daily Show been calling this "a not recession" for a while now?

Recessions are part of the normal business cycle. They clean out the excess, get rid of the lousy management and let the good companies prosper. Unfortunately, the current bailout craze is not going to allow the recession to play out as it has about 12 times since the 2nd World War. We are going like 1990s Japan. Not allowing the weak to fail. Bailing out the losers. Thus creating "zombie companies". Japan's stock market was at 39,000 in 1990. It is at 8,000 today, 18 years later. Bailouts get the economy.

@costanza007: Well said brother!

As much as I hate Bush, at least he, unlike his father, admitted we are in a recession and need help. I feel bad for all the people having to look for work right now and hope that relief will be on the way for them. I heard that there about 80 applications for every job opening in California right now and it's getting worse.

Well, if the government thinks its a recession... now I'm not so sure.

GDP is not a measure of prosperity. It certainly does not indicate prosperity for the lower income percentiles (like say, up to 90).

The economy can suck for the overwhelming majority of people in the country, but people still get to say "we're not in a recession."

They finally figured it out?

@Tmoney02: Blade has trouble dealing with the final nail in the coffin to 8 years of failed Republican tax cuts and leadership -- one of the worse recessions in history. Let's keep hoping that railing against illegal immigrants stays a Republican priority which well help assure they won't be back for a long time.