Despite OPEC's Best Efforts, Oil Prices Have Slipped Below $40 A Barrel
Oil prices have fallen below $40 a barrel, a 4 year low, despite OPEC announcing that it would cut production by 2.2 million barrels a day.
Thursday afternoon saw crude oil trading below $36 a barrel, says Bloomberg. JP Morgan chase is warning that the possibility of $25 barrels of oil in the future is "hard to dismiss."
JPMorgan Chase & Co., the largest U.S. bank by assets, reduced its 2009 average oil price forecast to $43 a barrel from $69 as a global economic slowdown causes a contraction in demand. The prospect of oil falling to $25 is “hard to dismiss amid a serious deterioration of economic conditions and building stocks,” the bank said in a report released yesterday.
Oil Falls Below $36 as Worsening Economy Increases OPEC Doubts [Bloomberg]
(Photo: beebo wallace )
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Comments:
@Dan Fishkin: I started driving back in 1998, it was just under a buck a gallon. If i see that again i'll be very happy.
@thewriteguy: I've been traveling for work a lot the last few months...and only have been filling up about 1x/month. It's awesome.
@summerbee: I was thinking that too, but on the other hand we've already seen a drop from about $4/gal to less than $2 and the demand hasn't exploded yet... Something tells me we're safe. Until the economy rebounds again. Then we're proper screwed.
@GC: Sadly, no one seems to realize that we never will run out of oil. Things die. When buried, they decompose. Eventually, they become oil. Just because the oil we are using is made with dinosaurs doesn't mean that the oil we use tomorrow wont be made out of me and you...
(interestingly enough, they have gone back to previously "tapped out" wells to find them half or more full again)
@summerbee: People might start driving more, but a lot of people made drastic changes by buying more fuel efficient cars when gas was over $3. They're not going to trade in those cars just because gas is under $2 now. In fact, no one's buying any kind of car right now. Fewer new cars = fewer containers of oil/gasoline.
@summerbee: Yes and no. I have a feeling that most driving is not simply for the pleasure of driving (as most cars sold are not designed for enthusiasts). Even if gas is free, people can't afford to go out and spend money on hotels, restaurants, etc... so they're not driving as much. In addition, with reduced retail sales comes reduced product transportation, etc... As long as the economy stays in a slump, I think gas consumption will remain low. Now we'll just have to see if oil produces are willing to cut production down enough to short this reduced demand.
@nataku83: I hope all the above commenters are right when they siggest that consumption will remain low, that people will buy only the gas they need to get to work, school, and the grocery store. Otherwise, yes, we are probably in big trouble when (if) the economy rebounds.
@thewriteguy: This is pretty much what I've been doing, albeit unintentionally. With gas prices being so high earlier in the year I'd become quite conscious of how much I was using and adjusted accordingly.
Now that prices have fallen, I'm enjoying not only less expensive fill-ups, but am making that same cheap gas last longer because of my change in habits.
Pardon me if I don't feel sympathy for the oil (robber) barrons and their terrorist Saudi buddies.
@paxetaurora: You got that right. Thats why I'm being fucked by my contractual obligations to my oil company this winter.
Thanks for making me feel old. Prices currently aren't anywhere near the lowest I've ever paid.
@danep: Sorry- AFAIK it hasn't changed at all in Texas at least. I can't speak for the rest of the nation.
I'm thinking of getting a bunch of 50 gallon barrels and stocking up for when the prices start rising in the spring. Then, I can go and sell my cheap gas door-to-door.
What could possibly go wrong?
@GC: No, we still will. It just means all the stuff made from it (plastic, lubricant, motor oil... toys, EVERYTHING) will be cheaper.
@Dan Fishkin: Lowest I've ever *seen* is 99c (that I recall).
Lowest I've ever personally *paid* is probably around 1.30-1.40
@summerbee: Classic Supply, Demand, Cost. Demand went down, cost went down, now trying to cut supply to raise cost. (Cost == Price) As long as we can keep demand low, there will have to be huge cuts in supply to raise the price back to were the A-rabs would like them. Im hoping we (USA! USA! USA!) can come up with a oil alternative and finally kick the A-rabs and our little oil habit while theyre down.
@danep: Please. No more taxes on anything until the government can learn to spend the money that it does have more wisely.
@Hank Scorpio: I was going to link to exactly what you linked to, but you did it first! Great episode.
Dude, OPEC is not comprised of magicians. We're still dealing with a physical commodity (on some level)
Even though they announced the cuts, it's going to take a few weeks first for the member states to comply, then it's going to take another few weeks for the flow of oil to dry up substantially. Talk to me in a month and a half.
Today's shenanigans are just commodities traders peeing themselves over the potential collapse of the Big 3 automakers and the downgrade of GE.
In the meantime, enjoy the cheap gasoline (or not).
There was a show on Discovery (or one of its similar channels) last night about oil and all the things made from it.
It made me realize that hybrids and ethanol aren't going to solve the oil running out crisis.
We have to replace plastic, motor oil, heavy machinery lubrication, the machines that make canned goods use lubricant also - mostly oil based.. look at all the barbie dolls made from plastic. This is all OIL.
Granted MOST of it goes to gasoline or similar (jet fuel, etc) but what will we do to curtail THAT consumption?
@danep: I think the government should just invest in infrastructure. Its a better return than a tax and its more transparent.
@danep: Why in the world would you want more taxes? People, we need to get rid of the mentality that new revenue streams are required to pay for existing government programs. There's already plenty of money in the budget to pay for these things. Problem is, most of the money is mismanaged, used inappropriately, or supports programs that provide little to no benefit.
Me too... *sigh...*
call me back when we're talking about feed prices for the brontosaurus I rode to school... :(
@skc15:
"Even though they announced the cuts, it's going to take a few weeks first for the member states to comply,"
If one remembers one's history,the many flavors of OPEC cheat on their output quota every time the price of crude collapses. Watch Nigeria , watch Venezuela (where Hugo Chavez needs big oil revenues to stay in power)and watch Russia (who mainly looks out for itself first and foremost). If these countries really cut output,then the price will stabilize or go back up a bit. But when they start cutting each others throats,it'll be look out below (as in $1 regular). That oil has to go somewhere,you can't eat it,and a lot of the countries that produce it have very few other exports (Saudi Arabia is the exception - they export terrorism).
Now, you might say "Snarkysnake , if that is your REAL name,have we not just gained a little precious breathing room that will allow our political leaders to stop committing adultery long enough to craft an energy policy that will help us avoid the economy crushing shock that we had last summer ?"
You poor pitiful fool. If anything,our so called "political leaders" are busy crafting a plan that will ensure that we use more fuel than ever (while helping them get reelected) with such worth "infrastructure projects" as bridges to nowhere,roads to nowhere important and airports that they can name for themselves. (Ted Stevens of Alaska has an airport named for him and he's a 7 time FELON)
So,buy a scooter now while they are cheap,when we go off on another fuel bender in a year or two,you won't be able to buy them for love or money...
@skc15:
Its a physical commodity traded on a futures market. News will move the market because the entire market is built on forecasting. Its the same reason that when a company lowers its guidance for the coming quarter that the stock price drops immediately, despite the fact that the referenced fiscal quarter is just starting.
@homerjay wants Boston Legal back!: oh, F* i'm sorry. I know too many people up here (in NY) who did the same thing. My company tried to get me to lock in a price of $4.19... Instead, I told them hell no, and stacked more than a season's worth of wood for the woodstove. But now my financial advisors have informed me, now is the time to buy buy buy.
@concordia: I think a lot of people have done that. My husband and I started car pooling, and we don't see a reason to quit now that we've adjusted our schedules and gotten into the habit.
Lots of people sold their big SUV's, too.
The $4 a gallon gas prices were painful, but maybe something positive came out of it.
my question is regarding E85.
This is how it went down. This is actual prices near my house
Gas is $3.75
e85 is $2.75
Then, one day its
Gas 2.75
e85 1.75
Now, being the conspiracy theorist i am i automatically assume the e85 people are fixing the prices just as much as the oil people. How does it constantly stay a convenient dollar under the price of normal gas?
How does a lower cost of a barrel of oil effect e85 so much?
Of course, i know nothing about gas or people.. so explain to me how this isn't shady in some respect?
You can make me love the e856 people because, as of right now, they look shady to me.
@jfielder23: Ouch, where do you live?
Arizona still isn't as cheap as other states that I've seen, but we continue to fall. It was down another $.02 this morning on the way to work.
@Hank Scorpio: I realize you're just joking, but I'll bet someone sees this and actually tries it so I'm putting it here: Make sure you stablize any gas your store with chemical treatments or it will lose power.
@homerjay wants Boston Legal back!: Yeah me too. I am not afraid to mention their name, either, since they have a $600 early termination fee. The company name is Petro Oil. While I appreciate that contracts work both ways, geez, $600 to redo a new contract!! WTF!. It's not like I want to leave the company, I was just hoping for a little pain to redo the contract, not a swift kick in the nuts. Their service is great and all. And I'm locked in at $4.749 since my contract was redone in July. That's why my house is set for 60/66 degrees this winter. The weekends I let the house get toasty at 66 all day long.
Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. This year I lost. Maybe next year's contract I'll go with their cap contract instead of a fixed price. That way if prices go down, I can benefit too.



















Well, at least we won't run out of oil now.