Black Friday Sugar Rush Won't Last For Retailers
While Black Friday revenues were up from last year, retailers are just getting a quick high. The crash starts tomorrow.
On the one hand, shoppers took advantage of new and expanded deals and doorbusters and bought on average of 7% more. On the other, for many it marked the end of their holiday shopping, rather than the beginning. In addition, the discounts were so steep, and stacked on already marked-down prices, it seems likely that overall holiday numbers will be down by the time Santa makes his run.
Good news for the makers of googly eyes* as home-made gifts are in this year.
Deep Discounts Draw Shoppers, but Not Profits [NYT] (Photo: Mr. Dtb)
*Just about anything can be improved with googly eyes, including plants.
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Comments:
@VeeKaChu: Of course it's not a coincidence. Gas prices are linked with the economy. When the economy start collapsing all over the world, demand (both immediate and projected) falls drastically. When the demand falls, so does the price of oil.
@brainwav: agreed - I think the only deals that have impressed me are the hard drives (such as 1TB for $98)... everything else has been weak.
all of this is crazy talk...
everyone is saving up their money (also known as 'not buying junk') because of the gloom and doom news of recession and lost jobs...
meanwhile - most people still have their jobs! last I checked, but paycheck is still coming... The question becomes "when will everyone start spending their savings and living beyond their means again?"
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Let me know when I can get a $750 LCD HDTV that has 1080p, 120hz, audio out, over 40" and good reviews...
@brainwav:
i am of the same mind set.
i THINK its because ALL prices are so much lower. 500$ for laptop seems like a good deal when all laptops are 1,000$. When laptops are normally 600.... yawwwwn
@bonzombiekitty: of course, that doesn't account for speculation bubbles like we saw this summer. despite drops in demand, the cost continued to rise to epic levels.
@brainwav: agreed The closest thing to a "deal" was a 40" Samsung LCD for $789.00 (wal-mart?) but at that point you're only saving based on the brand name. Any other day of the year you can walk out of Wal-Mart/Target/etc... with a $789.00 40" LCD except it would say Visio on the front...
@freelunch: Check out [www.secondact.com] they've got refurbished stuff, at great prices. Then run the model numbers through [www.wize.com]
You're welcome.
I agree about "not buying junk."
I've been informed for the family gift exchange that $75 is the budget. I can't think of anything I need/want this year that isn't "junk" or "dust collector"
Maybe I'll ask for cash and put it towards the new computer I'll be building next year.
@Starfury: Ask for people to donate the money to charity. That's what I'm asking for. No physical presents, send your money to people who really need it.
When I heard the "Black Friday sales up 7% over last year" this morning, I thought, "Uh-oh, that's bad news."
Why? Because of this posting. If BF sales had been up only a little bit, okay, but such a large number makes it that much more likely that people are fixated on sale shopping.
Which means that the people who bought the other day were the only people who were going to buy anything at all, and they got their bargains, and that's it for the season.
On the bright side-- the *after* Christmas sales will probably be amazing this year. Bad for retailers, but good for the patient folks who still have money.
@highpitch_83: Eh, I got a 46" LCD marked down from $2200 (MSRP, going for $1600 at most places) from NewEgg, for $1000. It was their "pre-BlackFriday" sale (Thursday night -> Friday morning), but it was a really good deal for a solid Aquos... which _is_ better than a $800 Visio.
Indeed it won't. As I already mentioned on the daily deals thread, I almost ended up paying more today than I would have pre-thanksgiving.
Old Navy has thermal shirts that are reduced to 10 dollars. They used to be 2/14.50, so even with the 20% off everything you still pay 1.50 more. I know, this is a really petty thing, but just beware of this trick on more expensive items.
costco was selling a sharp with those specs for $800 and that would include a 3 yr warranty via costco concierge service.
@brainwav: Agreed. I was really hoping to find a nice 42" Plasma/LCD, but the only deals were noname brands, with near-regular prices on everything else.
@freelunch: A lot of people don't still have their jobs. That's a big reason why a lot of people aren't spending. If they haven't lost their job, they very well could in the next six months.
@downwithmonstercable: tell me what you think about these numbers.
Oct 2008 unemployment rate: 6.5% (10.1 mil)
Oct 2007 unemployment rate: 4.7% (7.2 mil)
Oct 2008 employment: 145.0 million
Oct 2007 employment: 146.0 million
This is the most recent employmenet statistics available.
What this tells me: 1 million (approx) jobs have been dropped in the last year, and the available/interested workforce has increased by 1.9 million.
I'll call it a recession when the drop in jobs is more than 2% over a year.
Stuff after Christmas is usually on clearance, which means retailers are just trying to get rid of it. This is great if your looking for toys or the usual things that go on clearance after Xmas (or can somehow stash toys away for cheap that your kids will actually like next year).
People will still have money after Xmas, however I would expect the winter months like Feb and beyond will be worse, this is when it will be really dead. You will see the usual clearances directly after Xmas however I wouldn't expect deals on video games and Ipods directly after Xmas because kids have loads of spending money after Xmas. Retailers will be out to cash in on that influx of kids who run out Dec. 26th to buy the latest Ipod or latest video game with their money from Xmas. Kids also take their Xmas money and buy pretty much everything they didn't get on that day.
I would expect video games to start dropping in price after the after-Xmas rush is over, maybe late Jan and beyond.
If you have money to spend after Xmas try to resist spending it right away (like on Dec. 26th), retailers will be out to get you on that, instead wait until things get pretty dead around late Jan or Feb when the Xmas bills for the overspenders start coming in. If your making a big purchase always remember to go on the 30th or 31st for haggling purposes!
@brainwav: Agreed. Actually, I found a lot of the deals down right pathetic and insulting to a point. For example, Target essentially recycled their ads from last year, marking down last year's titles for the same price, as if there were no new releases this year. Amazon did the same, as did Walmart. Not to mention, Amazon actually INCREASED their prices for Black Friday. I saw a new release DVD for $6.99 early Thanksgiving morning with a note that said the price would drop even lower @ 2am PST on Black Friday so I waited for the sale. I log on at 2am PST and it went up to $8.99. Needless to say, a couple of their reps got an earful from me, including a manager who with an "accent."
@brainwav: Agreed. Lame sauce this year. though Amazon had some nice deals on games I've been looking to pick up for my 360. Some of the brand spankin' new ones even for 50% off!
@freelunch: Keep in mind the unemployment figure you are quoting is the most optimistic one, and doesn't count people who have dropped off of unemployment rolls because they've been on them for so long, who have simply given up, etc. Many economists believe the "real" unemployment rate is closer to 10%.
@Dave J.: I emphasis the employment numbers rather than unemployment for that reason. Unemployment rates only measure the people that are actively looking for employment (which is subsequently broken out into long term and short term unemployed).
The employment rates are a much better indication of the growth or recession of an active market.
An interesting metric to have would be the number of job openings in the country that are awaiting qualified applicants.
@bonzombiekitty: Right, eh? Taking a margin hit the size of a rhino cause everything was on sale cuts into those profits quite a bit...
@Outrun1986: Gotta disagree with you on a February shopping freeze. That's when Uncle Sam starts giving back people's sweet, delicious tax monies, after all. If I can't afford the Xbox 360 I wanna Santa myself this holiday season, you can be damned sure I'm picking one up as a Black History present.
I really don't understand the problem with the correction the economy is going through right now. Certainly, I don't want it to enter a deflationary spiral where business start tanking hard...but the last 5-6 years have been marked by unprecendented growth based on credit. Savings rates have dropped to almost nothing. I think everyone would agree that lowering the amount of credit used and increasing savings rates are really good things. Well, guess what? To get there, the economy will have to undergo some contraction. There's just no way around it. My hope is that people (including me) still have their jobs a year from now. If that's the case, then we'll be better off by the reduction in credit.
@jurijuri:
ZOMG!!! My boss's last name is Cooper, and we have huge name plates outside all of our offices (in all upper case, no less). I am so totally going to a craft store this afternoon to buy a bunch of those sticky goggly eyes!
You have made my day!
@brainwav: You're right - this year was one of the worst. Seems like you could get a few deals on big-screen TV's and that was pretty much it - certainly nothing worth standing in line for.















A wise friend told me that googly eyes also work well for bottles of Sam Adams, and for the nameplates of coworkers with "oo" in their names.