How Not To Panic About The Stock Market
Seeing the greatest single-day point drop in the Dow is probably not the kind of history anyone wants to be living through right now. The failure of the bailout bill to pass caused a big freakout in the market, which thought we were going to get a bailout today. But before you click the button to transfer all your investments to 0% return T-bonds (aka I give up on investing), first ask yourself if that's really in line with your long-term investment goals. Secondly, realize that point-wise it might the greatest drop, but it's not the greatest drop percentage-wise. In other words, we've been here, and bounced back, before. If you're decades away from retirement, today's plunge is a buying opportunity. Here are some thoughts about fighting the urge to panic.
If you're older, you can make sure your investment mix is balanced and in-line with your investment plan. For instance, this easy calculator from the Iowa Public Employees Retirement System can you give you some ideas. Just adjust the sliders to correspond with your age, income requirements, etc, though it is of course only a starting point in your research. A recent Vanguard article on the importance of asset allocation is another good place to begin.
The one thing that you can do, regardless of age, if you're investing in any kind of fund is make sure your expense ratios are low. These are the various fees your fund is charging you to invest it. Typically index funds offer the lowest expense ratios. Expense ratios work like the fund earning compound interest on your money, which, after years, can add up to tens of thousands of dollars less in your pocket. (see our post "What Are "Expense Ratios?" and "How Your 401(k) Is Ripping You Off"
If this sounds like the same stuff you always hear, that's because it is. The point of that same old stuff is that you make a solid long-term plan and you stick with it, whether times are good, bad, or apocalyptic. Now, as ever, timing the market is unwise. Dollar-cost-averaging, where you put the same amount every month, is a good way to go. In general, and over time, the stock market rises. And, eventually, Washington will figure out a bailout plan.
(Photo: Getty)
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-21.8% return on my 401k! wooohoooo. Good thing I have only been contributing for 1 year.
While I appreciate Ben's sincere attempts to keep people from running on banks and pulling out of the stock market (which if done en masse will really screw liquidity), the day-to-day volatility in the stock market right now makes it dangerous and stupid. The same reason newbies shouldn't invest in ForEx or commodities (you could be wiped out in a day with a wild swing) is the same reason why people should stay out of the market for a while. Many of the smartest people in the country who invest for a living are losing their shirts right now.
Simply put: When the stock market swings up and down this wildly over a short period of time, "investments" look more like "wagers." Buying a T-Bill grants you a lot of peace of mind in exchange for (at the very best), 2% over three months. Seriously. Pull your money out now and quit gambling with your retirement/kid's college funds.
Don't get me wrong, the sky may not be falling and I wouldn't pull out investments I have made if I actually had any, but I most certainly would not be buying new stock. Or maybe if you get lucky, you get it cheap and make tons of money. I'm too much of a pussy to gamble like that when the consequences of losing are devastating. Would be nice tho.
While the sensationalist news media will make a BIG deal about how 778 points is the greatest single-day drop in history, they won't be quick to tell you that percentage wise, the drop doesn't even fall into the top 10 worst.
Not to say that today's shenanigans weren't a big deal, but you gotta have some perspective.
I'm kind of hoping for some brief inflation, it'd make it a lot easier to pay off my credit card bills if I were making $40 an hour as minimum wage.
After the crash of 1987, most of the losses were made back in a few years.
It's usually a mistake to sell at these times.
In fact, if you have the money, I'd start buying. That's what the people with the old money will start doing very shortly.
Twophrasebark is just some person writing a comment on a blog. He is not a professional analyst or consultant. His views are his own. Consult with your mother before buying or selling stocks.
The stock market is like a rollercoaster ride : You only get hurt when you try to jump off too early. Relax. Wealth flows to owners of businesses. Bumps along the way ? You betcha. Find a company or companies to invest in that have shareholder friendly management and you will do just fine.Sty away from the pigs that squeeze every last drop out of a company before moving on and you should be OK. Just my two cents...
Great depression, or the greatest depression?
@anonymousryan: I wouldn't bank on that, even with the huge dip in the stock market, the USD seems to be holding strong against the Euro.
Please note that although it's the greatest single-day drop in history if you count by POINTS, it's only a 7% drop in actual percentage, which isn't even in the top ten.
Source material:
uhm, isn't Dollar cost averaging a scam? That is, if you have a large sum of money you should really be investing it smartly in a single lump vs. spread out over time.
I stopped investing 1.5 years ago, pulled out before everything started to go. All I have now is cash, gold and silver. On hand, not in any third party thieves vault, in fire-proof safes I keep my various M4's and other things that go boom.
If I was a betting man, I'd bet Wall Street just has a complete crash into nothingness. Burn baby, BURN!
@twophrasebark: Mmmhmmm. Agreed. I've been trying to contribute as much money as possible to my Roth IRA while the market's low. But - I am a long-term investor and won't touch those funds for the next thirty-five years [knock on wood]. So I'm willing to risk the volatility.
@agnamus: This is good advice for someone closing in on retirement.
This is BAD advice for those of you who are young and investing heavily in your 401K/ IRA. For these people (of which I am one), the best thing you can do is find a solid index fund with a low expense ratio and pump those contributions up to the max you can comfortably afford. In five years when the market recovers, you'll be looking at a significant appreciation in your nest egg, which pays huge dividends in the long run thorugh compound interest.
@agnamus: It's only dangerous if you plan on pulling the money back out soon. If you're investing for the long term, the current gyrations don't matter because you're not selling.
Buying T-bills just ensures you'll lose money due to inflation.
Thank you. I'm getting a bit sick of singing REM to get scaremongers around me who won't listen to reason to shut up
The link near DCA on this site says that you shouldn't do it, but that it's a better strategy than nothing. Are you saying that it works better when the economy is unstable?
@agnamus: I think thats kind of his point (not some noble effort to stave off any kind of run) to look at how its actually going to affect you individually.
For me it is still investing. I'm not one of the smartest people in the country trying to do this as a living. I'm just looking at chart #2 knowing that in the long run, I'm going to win. None of its a wager at this point 'cause I'm not going looking for any of the short term cash.
I'm far enough from retirement that I imagine we'll have at least two more of these before I get there. Don't have the kid's college funds to worry about because well, there are no kids and at this age even if I did have kids they'd probably see another of these before they're ready for college anyways.
For me it would be foolish to pull out. All I'd do is lose. I'm looking for bargins at this point.
@hypnotik_jello: They key word is "smartly." Dollar-cost averaging is good if you're not smart enough to market time, and frankly almost no one is. Think about what would have happened to someone who put a lump sum in the market in 1929. They wouldn't have gotten any return for 25 years.
@Ayo: I'll see your -21.8% 401k and raise you -18% value of my house. Good times, good times...
It's getting closer to time for investing in canned goods, guns and ammunition.
"ask yourself if that's really in line with your long-term investment goals."
A better question to ask is how much longer will you allow the financial predators (e.g. The Federal Reserve) who caused this catastrophe to continue spewing their poison under the pretext of bailing out the markets and thus "protecting Main Street."
Then again, like lambs being led to slaughter, perhaps it's better that Joe Six-pack and the rest of the rabble not be allowed to delve too deeply into these murky, er, weighty matters. So, how's about hearing a pop-cultural reference from the 80's to lighten the mood? I'll start.
From "Red Dawn" (1984):
Re-education Film Narrator: [at what once was the Calumet, Colorado Drive-in Theater] "America is a whorehouse... where the revolutionary ideals of your forefathers... are corrupted and sold in alleys by vendors of capitalism."
@battra92: Speaking for the scaremongers, we're tired of pointing out obvious facts that have no precedent in history which should be scaring the living bejesus out of the Pollyanna types.
@hypnotik_jello: but that assumes you have it all now. Dollar cost averaging will still help those of us like me, who don't have a huge chunk of cash to buy stocks with now, but add a few hundred into their 401k every 2 weeks. Some weeks I'm buying when prices are high, but I make up for it on the weeks that it is lower.
Maybe that last picture isn't the best example...
Sure, it shows great growth from 1970-1990. But as I read it, the growth is flat over the last 10 years; we're in the same position.
Now, here's the interesting question: Do you believe that the next 10 years will look more like post-9/11 or pre-9/11 America? If it goes back to pre-9/11, then we might look like that growth from the 70's-90's. My bet, unfortunately, is that we'll maintain post-9/11 status and our market will decrease or stay flat over the next 10 years.
So, that begs the question: Will this curve look anything like the picture here when we're looking at the 40 year span from 1990-2030? Is long term holding really going to behave the same as it did for our parents and grandparents? I'm not so sure...
@picardia: You mean, "The fundamentals of the US economy are strong. You (f*cking) whiner"?
Ah, the good ol' days of... Err, last week.
Maybe the new campaign slogan should be, 208 more weeks of the last 416 weeks?
In June my wicked fiscally smart brother told me I should sell off all of my mutual funds because things were looking bad until at least the election.
I did.
I owe him...
@agnamus:
I'm going to go ahead and agree with Ben and disagree with you on this.
If you are decades from retirement, T-bills are a losing proposition. While they are technically 'risk free', the one risk that is seldom accounted for is inflationary risk. The dollar has made big gains recently, but inflation is relatively high right now. Unless you are having to pay for your kids college in the next 2 years, there is probably no better place to be than the equity markets after such major drops. Currently, 5 year Treasury notes are giving yields of about 2.6%. Being conservative and saying that, over that time period inflation averages 3.5%, you are losing an average of 1% each year.
I said this in another post, but it is worth repeating. Don't try to time the markets by looking for the absolute bottom, you will be wrong 3/4 of the time (even us pros are). The best you can do is wait for big pull-backs and pounce when you can afford it.
Asset allocation is key, don't get too invested in any one sector, and passive investing is fine for most people look to match market returns. Times like this are when those with cash to invest make fortunes. As they say 'buy when there is blood in the streets'
To put it another way, would you rather have gotten into the market the day before a 775 point drop, or the day after?
When some guy arguing for a return to the gold standard closes with a quote from Red Dawn to buttress his argument, it saves us all from needing to summon the energy to shoot the argument down ourselves.
Well done, sir!
@anonymousryan: yeah, and i wouldn't count on your wages going up during this crap either...not that i think you were serious.
@tande04: It's not foolish for you to pull out because if you've lost, you've already lost it. Long term investing is fine, but people who invest long term will still lose money in this economy. Even if the DJIA will rebound in a decade, it's better for you to get out while it's on the downslope and stay out until it turns around. We know it's going to go lower. We know it's not going to spike up any time soon. There literally is no reason to be holding stocks right now unless you know what you're doing.
so i *just* bought stock in two companies last week, so while i've lost some money in just a few days, i'm not so invested that i'm going broke from this.
apple dropped 23 points today, and i'm considering buying as much stock as i can. the problem is, i don't want to put in a trade now and have it drop even more tomorrow. i'm just going to hover over the numbers for the next couple of days, and as soon as i think it's going back up, i'm buying the shit out their stock. i mean, just a month ago it was at 180, so just imagine if you bought now and it got back to that. we're not talking retirement fund, but we're talking maybe a new macbook touch!!!
@agnamus: The problem is no one can predict when it *will* turn around. So what people end up doing is pulling out when the market has dropped, then going back in after it's gone up for a while. That guarantees a loss you wouldn't have if you'd just left the money in place.
@MobileMilitia: Just buy it if you think that AAPL is a good long-term investment and a good value at its current level. Trying to time the market like that is gambling, not investing.
@TheFlamingoKing: Agreed, we're looking at 4% or so over 10 years (7784 in September of 1998, not quite flat but not good). You could have gotten 4.772 with a 10 year treasury purchased in 1998 with no risk, makes you wonder... The other indexes are just as bad over that period.
*shrug* I guess we can only hope really, because nothing else gives you much in returns either, once inflation is factored in. Some of us might end up working longer than we hoped for if things do not improve somewhere.
Stock Market: You haven't lost or made anything until you sell. Otherwise it's imaginary money, nothing more then collecting comic books or postage stamps.
If you sell now, you are realizing any theoretical losses as well as pushing the market down further. The only reason to sell is that you don't believe your initial investments are sound. If you say have a lot of high risk money in the mortgage tranches for instance. If that is your situation, there may be no upswing for you.
i just wish i had money to throw into the market right now. there's some solid deals just waiting to be plucked (just stay out of the financial market).
take, for example, at&t or microsoft - both are trading at or near their 52-week low. both are solid companies that aren't going anywhere any time soon.
i'd like to gamble some cash on sun - $7/share is a steal for them (imho), but they've had some pretty volatile history (& i'm broke), so i'll just have to add them to my fantasy stock portfolio.
but that's what i would do. what you should do is sell all your stock (to me for $1).
@Ayo: you're not kidding, man. every penny i've invested this year seems to have been sucked up - the total value of the portfolio hasn't changed in a year, despite the contributions my employer & i have made.
but i guess you're not supposed to get wrapped up in the return % so much as the cost of units in each portfolio (or so i'm told).
b/c you're (presumably) investing a fixed amount, you're actually getting more units for your buck, which is a good thing in the long run (assuming we don't go 12 monkeys & start living underground).
so, assuming 1 unit of mid-cap in your portfolio cost $50 a year ago, now it costs $39.10. that means a fixed investment of $100 buys 2.56 units instead of 2. in the long run you'll be better off b/c essentially you bought at discount this year.
I'm pretty sure it's the Large Hadron Collider at fault. Ya know, they only had it fired up for a moment a few weeks ago, but maybe it released some of that there dark-matter/anti-matter stuffs and it scooted on over and infected the financial sector.... Maybe...?
@johnva: well considering how unlikely it is that they'll go up to 180 tomorrow (what they were at just over a month ago), so i think trying to time it over the next few days won't be much of a gamble. i mean, it either starts to go up and i buy (and deal with it if it drops again), or it keeps going down and i wait another day. i'm not going to sit there and think 'ok, maybe it'll go down a buck tomorrow', i'm looking for a big change like today.
The company Execs PWNED everyone in the market. They sucked out the value and replaced it with debt. Get a nice stock option, perform a stock buy back with debt and sll your options into the buyback. Fairly simple scam leaving shareholders holding the bag.
Just look at Angelo Mozilo making close to $500 million in 1 year selling his shares.
I feel like Warren Buffet now! Buy low, sell high. We have some good buying opportunities right now. Even Buffet is buying! Woo Hoo!
I'm buyin' as much gold, can goods & ammo as I can & headin' for the hills!
Every economics minded person should read this reassuring post: [caseymulligan.blogspot.com]
It makes a very reasonable case that this is not the crisis that we've been told, when comparing some indicators with real recessions in the '30s, early 80s, and earlier this decade. Let me know what you think.
Shame on you. Try showing a chart starting in the 1960s and is INFLATION ADJUSTED.
Dow at 1000, gasoline at $0.15 per gallon. Now DOW 10000, Gas at $3.50.
From the peak of 1929, it took until the mid 1950s - yes 25 years, to break even!
That is just shorter than the width of your chart.
"They" also said homes and property never lose value, so it was an investment. So if you are so underwater in your house, you should just keep paying the mortgage since it will double in value? Try a graph of home prices and it would look a lot like your stock chart.
Or why not the NDX? Oh, because it never got back to more than 50% of the 2000 peak.
I keep hearing pundits say that a lot of companies use short-term credit to fund their payrolls. How many companies really do this? Is it common practice?
Remember how, up until last week, every post about the economy was accompanied by comments from people scolding us all for being un-American alarmists who believed in old wives' tales of trouble?
I wish, man. I wish.