Expert Says Gasoline Prices Could Drop To $3.50 Per Gallon By Labor Day
According to Phil Flynn, Vice President and Senior Market Analyst at Alaron Trading, gas prices nationwide have been recently reduced about $.05 per gallon and he says this is just the beginning. He predicts that gas prices could go down to $3.50 a gallon by Labor Day (Sept. 1st).
According to CBS2's article,
"We saw a substantial drop in the price of crude oil, which it appears gas station owners were in a hurry to pass on to consumers," said Phil Flynn, Vice President an Senior Market Analyst at Alaron Trading.
"So often we hear gas prices rise like a rocket and drop like a feather, this time, they're starting to drop like a rock and that's a good thing," Flynn said.
That's partly because demand is down about 4 percent from where it usually is. Many people have put the brakes on driving this summer because it costs too much.
"We could see $3.70 in the city and if we get really lucky, maybe $3.50 by Labor Day," Flynn said.
Yes, there is a fine line between educated speculation and full on media whoring, but does Phil look like the kind of guy who would simply say what we all want to hear, just to get his name in the news? Ok, don't answer that.

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Comments:
Man, I'm still fairly torn on gasoline prices. I like the reduction in SUVs, pickups and frivolous or aggressive driving, but on the other hand I'd like the economy to stop sucking so hard and the stock market to go back up. Also, in all fairness I don't think those positives I listed really took effect yet in Houston.
I don't see any reason why oil companies will lower gas prices. The price of crude may drop, but Exxon/Mobile, BP, etc have no reason to lessen their profits. As much as we try, we can't just stop needing gasoline/diesel so quick. The article says demand has dropped 4%; even if that's true, pump prices have risen at least 20-30% in the past year. So they're still way in the black. Right now, pump prices around my area are about $4, so even if it does drop 10 or 20 cents, it'll be back up soon. I bet oil companies just want to get people back in the driving mode again, then the prices will come back up because **shakes magic 8-ball** the anniversary of 9/11; or **shakes magic 8-ball** they can get away with charging it.
I predict that this expert knows nothing more than anyone else. I'm no expert, I see the price falling, and I think, hmmm... it might fall a little further, hmm... it's trending downward. Said expert should have spoken up when gas was rising, but maybe he was the one predicting $200 a barrel oil. As far as I'm concerned--$100/barrel or $200/barrel, both are still on the table given the general volatility (pardon the pun) of petroleum in the last 18 months, but then again, I'm no expert.
Bush removed the ban on offshore drilling, oil drops $9. It will take a little bit to feel it in the gas pumps.
I suspected this would happen. To those of you who think gas wont go down because of the profits, you have a misunderstanding of how oil/gas works.
It has a fixed margin. Or relatively fixed. So when crude goes down, gas goes down. However, don't forget there are other reasons why our oil is so high. Weak dollar, etc etc.
Also don't forget there is competition. And regulation. They compete for your business, and there are regulations on gouging. So relax. Take good news. We hear it so little
@davere: Same thing happened last election. Will happen this election too, oil companies need to keep republicans in power and the higher gas prices are hurting the republicans chances of getting reelected. As soon as the elections are over gas prices will shoot back up and oil companies will go back to record profits and huge tax breaks.
@Bladefist: Why would a symbolic lifting of a ban on offshore drilling (symbolic because it's still banned by Congress) cause anything?
@Bladefist
I'm afraid that I also need to disagree with your line of thinking. I sincerely, and strongly doubt that Bush's attempt to be "seen to be doing something" (not singling him out, as any politician would likely have made the same move) has anything to do with the drop in gas prices. I agree that this IS good news, and we can hope that this will continue, but I am not holding my breath.
Even if they were able to start drilling off the coast of the US we wouldn't see any increase in the supply of oil in at least a couple years. I'm not an expert on building oil rigs, but:
A) those things are expensive, and IMO the cost of building new ones will be passed onto consumers.
B) They also take a significant time to build.
I'm sorry, but increasing the flow of oil only sustains our dependence on oil as an energy source. I'm certainly not an Al Gore fan, and I think a more realistic compromise between the 2 points of view needs to be found to move us away from fosil fuel technology.
/soapbox
@Bladefist: Do you really believe the same President who said he didn't have a 'magic wand' that reduces oil prices could, uh, wave a magic wand...er...executive order and reduce oil prices? I'll settle for the Econ 101 answer to this question and say it's because the market simply won't support $150 oil.
Of course, this is an election year, so Republicans will claim just about any cockamamie thing hoping people will buy it.
@acknight:
Because the mere thought of us getting even a small percentage of our oil needs from someone other the OPEC may have been enough for them to shudder a little bit. Symbolic? Yes. Effective? It seems that it may have been.
@dallasmay: Perhaps because they are the only party purposing something that would lower the cost of gasoline? You do understand that the regulation happy democrats have controlled congress for the last two years which was the start of the gas spike.
@ndjustin: And what has the Democrat-controlled Congress passed in those two years which regulates Oil or Gasoline?
The Congressional ban on offshore drilling has been in place for a lot longer, and Republicans had 12 years in control to overturn it if they wanted to.
@acknight: Due to speculation, and oil being traded like shares. When something sparks a little fear in the market, people sell sell sell, just like in the stock market. People who owned barrels of oil freaked.
@TakingItSeriously: This is not about Bush. And I don't think Bush did it to make oil go down the $9. There is not a supply problem, so we can wait. While we are waiting, the speculation of us being independent will continue to drive oil down. Oil is NOT high right now because of supply/demand. Please understand this.
Forget about Alternative energy. It's not going to happen. It doesn't even exist yet. You think they cant build an oil rig, faster, and cheaper, then finding alternative fuel for cars that doesn't even exist today? The current solutions will not be adopted. We keep talking about these other solutions as if they exist. Hydrogen is the closest thing that could maybe someday work, but we are a long way from that. More then 10 years I would guess. Gotta build all new 'gas' stations.
@HurtsSoGood: Presidents/Congress can and do make comments that often affect the markets. Bush's comment realistically means nothing, but it put a little fear in the speculators.
The market will support $150 a barrel. With there being no other Alternative. Also our demand is down 2-5%, which puts more fear into the market.
Renewable energy doesn't exist. It breaks the 2nd law of thermodynamics. Don't let politicians and media sell you ideas that don't even exist.
Democrats this week in congress proposed a 10 cent per gallon tax increase. So there you go. Who is trying to help?
@TakingItSeriously:
To second Bladefist, the price of gas is almost completely unrelated to the infrastructure and companies refining gasoline, and almost completely mirrors the cost of oil in the futures market, which has no rhyme or reason how it works. Some days economic data are brushed off as irrelevant; some days the president saying the word 'oil' causes the price to move by 5%.
Know what the single best indicator for the price of oil in 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, or a year is? The current price of oil.
@heavylee-again: If you believe that oil companies have that much control over their prices, then why is gas not at $6.00 a gallon or $10.00 a gallon. If oil companies could just increase profits by increasing pump prices, then why did they ever let me buy gas at $0.79 a gallon (in 1999)? They would have made a lot more money charging me $4.00. Why would oil companies ever reduce prices?
@nataku83: Even if it does go down again, I think the damage is done. The days of everybody and their grandma owning a SUV are over. I think we Americans have really learned our lesson this time (hopefully!).
If every factor that goes into the price of gas breaks in our favor, gas prices could drop to $3.50/gallon by Labor Day!!!
On the other hand, they could go to $5.50/gallon if any of the following occurs:
-a hurricane hits within 1,000 miles of a refinery
-an act of terrorism
-some anonymous Saudi oil sheik sneezes
-China gets pissed that Kobe Bryant dunked on their basketball team in the Olympics and decides they want their money
-any one of a thousand negative items that gets into the news cycle that could be used as an excuse to raise the price of oil
But yeah...we could see $3.50 by Labor Day.
@Bladefist: "Bush removed the ban on offshore drilling, oil drops $9."
Are you denying you said this? Maybe you're NOT trying to help sell this "change the psychology" nonsense, but this quote does clearly show an A -> B relationship, in other words, you are making the assertion that Bush made oil go down nine bucks a barrel (it's now $20; you probably haven't gotten to this morning's paper yet) with the stroke of a pen, after he stated for the record maybe a week or two ago that such a thing was not possible.
I still believe, as do most of us here, that oil hit a brick wall at $145, people started calling in their chits, and now oil is at a much more realistic level, although I also think oil has a ways further to drop.
"Renewable energy doesn't exist. It breaks the 2nd law of thermodynamics. Don't let politicians and media sell you ideas that don't even exist."
Nice logical fallicy
a.) Pebble Bed Reactor
b.) Hydroelectric Power
c.) Solar Power
d.) Geothermal Power
e.) Wind Power
Please explain how these aren't for all intents & purposes renewable forms of energy, or kindly stop spreading bullshit. Thank you.
@Jaysyn:
Exactly, he's just laughably parroting these fascist oil men and the small-minded who don't think that there's a better answer. The sun is just a giant light bulb that Jesus is holding, too!
@Jaysyn:
They're what we term 'renewable energy' in the sense that the sun will essentially replenish all these things over the course of our use of them, something that happens far more slowly (but does happen!) with oil.
Yes, 2nd law of thermodynamics prohibits creation of energy, but solar and wind power are, for our purposes, limitless.
@Jaysyn: Technically it should be called transferred energy, because in all of those situations, it's being harvested from other forms of energy.
Renewable is a misnomer only in that you're not REUSING the exact same energy that you used in the first place. You're not harnessing the heat from the electric motor powered by a solar panel to power it again.
It's as simple as you're both using the same term with slightly different definitions in mind. Are either of you wrong? No, you're just arguing the same point with different words.
Wow, normally the second law of thermodynamics only gets misused by boring old creationists; now it's moved into the sexy new realm of fossil fuel advocacy. It must be so proud.
The price of oil (and therefore the price of gas) fluctuates in the short term due to any number of factors. It's very hard to predict. What's quite easy to predict is that, over the long term, prices will continue to rise. Supply is at a plateau, with no realistic reason to expect that to change. Meanwhile, demand from the BRICs is surging. Guess what? Prices are going to go up.
If gas prices fall to 3.50, the smart move would be to tax gas to get it back to 4 bucks a gallon. Some of that revenue could be diverted to help low income commuters and truck drivers or whatever, but the US needs to get used to high gas prices now.
I've avoided the blame Bush attack because it's so easy and I don't always like grinding this down into a political debate, but it appears you're after the Democrats so here goes:
1) Please tell me all the specific things Congress has does to impact oil prices. Everyone admits that even if we lifted the ban on offshore drilling right now, it would take at least a few years to see its impact (which will be in the range of 1-3%). In fact, we've reduced our consumption by a few points (which those dumb libruls wanted) and gas has dropped quite a bit. So, I guess they caused the drop in gas prices? Its no different than saying Bush's comment on drilling caused prices to drop.
Here are real things that affect oil prices:
1) Our dollar is worthless right now. A certain administration caused or contributed to this by reducing the interest rate in response to every economic problem.
2) Supply is curtailed because Iraq is mostly offline. Before the war, we didn't buy from Iraq, but they put oil onto the global market.
3) We're threatening Chavez, he's threatening with his oil. This scares oil traders.
4) We're threatening Iran. This scares oil traders.
5) The economies of India and China (Bush is off the hook for this one).
@HurtsSoGood: That was a market reaction from his speech. He didn't enact a bill/regulation, etc to cause that to go down. And it was not guaranteed to go down. Thus, no magic wand.
@Jaysyn: Ha. You showed your intelligence. Study Physics before you come at me. The sun doesn't create energy. It transfers. I think its cute when people with no background in science come after a college grad who understands physics, chemistry, and the rest of that hoop-la.
I understand the science, so I know the "renewable" energies are bs. I told you. Hydrogen is the only one even remotely close.
BTW, coal is a "renewable" fuel. It comes from plants. So we already went green! yay.
Now go back to relying on technologies that don't exist, while your politicians sell you general ideas w/ 0 explanation, and are behind closed doors raising your gas prices while you blame the only man who lowered them. Even if it was an accident :)
@Jaysyn: I think Bladefist might be commenting on some of the gas substitutes that people are pushing:
1) Corn based ethanol is a huge scam because its energy negative (more energy to create than comes out of the system). The problem is that its politically expedient because of all the midwest voters. Actually a diverse supply would be ideal (switchgrass, sugar, etc.) and these plants are more energy positive. Also, theres a lot of strides being made to increase the efficiency of the process by using bacteria, solar power, etc. to do some of the work.
2) Hydrogen is unrealistic and will be for some time. Which is exactly why Bush is pushing it. It shows he's doing something without doing anything. Did you know Bush proposed creating the new Hydrogen economy by using oil.
3) Solar, wind and tidal have huge potential as increased efficiency and reduced production costs have reduced the cost per KW to below coal (after transportation costs and tax subsidies are factored). There seems to be a lot more innovation that can be done in these areas. BTW- guess who's making most of these innovations? Universities and not the "free market." Universities are funded by taxpayer money. Socialists!
4) Nuclear power is an option, but one that scares liberals and conservatives alike. But they can be built and operate safely.
5) Electric cars have huge potential. They need need to work on the range and recharge times, but they could be a boom. It will take some additional energy, but not as much as you think because they'll mostly be recharging at night, when demand on the grid is low. Yes, there might be some pollution from the electricity, but it is MUCH less than what the individual cars combined would produce.
@kidincredible: We're not both right. I'm right. I'm sick of Al Gore/Government making up terms that sound awesome. Renewal energy does sound awesome. I know what they mean, but they are misusing the word to sell their ideas. Call it what it is. Expensive ways to harvest inefficient energy that protects the earth from an unscientific crisis. See. Easy.
@ARP: Ya. I'm glad you got my point.
Some notes:
4) Nuclear doesn't scare conservatives and liberals. Europe has gone nuclear, and Europe is vastly liberal. Nuclear scares people who are unaware of the advances in nuclear technologies.
5) Electric cars are inefficient. That said, if we adopted them, the grid wouldn't be low at night anymore, everyone would be charging their cars. If we are still on coal, that would bring us back to global warming.
@Bladefist: I think alternative energy will happen. It will just take a while and we need the oil for that little while until the transition is made -- maybe 20, 30 years.
The problems facing alternative energy are the following:
* Research -- yes, lots of research has been done, there have been improvements.
*
@Jaysyn: Awesome argument. I'll take that as you concede.
I don't know why you guys cant be happy. Gas is going down. You didn't think it would? Supply remains high, there is no shortage. It has to come back down. Just like our dollar will go back up. The media hates good news.
@Bladefist: That was a market reaction from his speech.
Have proof that it was specifically his announcement that caused the market to react to such a degree as to drop prices $9? Or could it possibly just be a coincidence and/or the market reacting to other news.
@Jaysyn:
Oh you just wait, he'll be winning that Nobel Prize any day now, and then he'll show you! Remember, he is "a college grad who understands physics, chemistry, and the rest of that hoop-la."
/me throws his Master's degree in the trash






















ALL energy needs to be considered to be utilities and not just electricity.