Beware The "MPG Illusion" When Comparing Fuel Efficiency

Sure, switching from a gas guzzler to a highly efficient (and probably much smaller) car is best for the environment, but it’s not a realistic solution for large families or people who can’t afford it. But don’t let the fact that you can’t buy a 40 mpg car turn you off of a trade up in efficiency anyway. A couple of economists have pointed out that “using ‘miles per gallon’ as a measure of fuel efficiency leads people to undervalue the benefits of replacing the most inefficient automobiles.” Their point: if you’re driving a gas guzzler, even a small improvement in fuel efficiency can generate significant savings.

Gillis calculated that at $4 a gallon, over 10,000 miles, an improvement from 12 mpg to 13 mpg would save $256. For the owner of a 33 mpg car to save that much, mileage would have to go up to 40 mpg, he said.

Here’s how it works.

A couple drives a 25 mpg sedan. They trade it for a 50 mpg hybrid, a 25 mpg improvement.

A family with mom, dad and three kids has a 10 mpg SUV to haul everyone around. They trade it for a 20 mpg station wagon, a 10 mpg improvement.

Sounds like the couple did better, at least in miles per gallon.

But lets look at gallons per miles.

At 25 mpg the couple burned 400 gallons over a year and their new 50 mpg hybrid cuts that to 200 gallons. They save 200 gallons.

At 10 mpg the family’s SUV burns 1,000 gallons of gas a year. At 20 mpg the station wagon burns 500 gallons — they save 500 gallons, much better than the couple.

Obviously you stand to save the most with the most efficient car. In the above example, though, you’re spending so much on gas for that big vehicle that cutting your consumption in half can save you $2,000 a year. It’s worth keeping this in mind if you’ve been assuming it’s cheaper to stick with your old 10 mpg vehicle, or if you’re car shopping on a limited budget and tempted to disregard modest fuel efficiency ratings.

“Seeking better gas mileage? Think backwards” [CNN]
“The MPG Illusion” (subscribers only) [Science]
(Photo: Getty)

Comments

  1. trance3303 says:

    this might be the most informative post in a long while

  2. chilled says:

    voodo math..

  3. Coder4Life says:

    This article is completely crap. I am sorry.

    They both save 50% from what they are used to spending.

  4. sleze69 says:

    Forget miles/gallon. Go with cost/distance traveled. That way you can fairly add diesel fuel into the equation.

  5. Skiffer says:

    Hooray for basic math!!!

    CNN, you so smart!

  6. Chris Walters says:

    @Coder4Life: The point is, the person with the 10 mpg vehicle who can’t trade up to a 40 mpg vehicle might take a look at a 20 mpg vehicle and think it’s not worth the trouble because it’s still considered “inefficient.” You know how people are with off-the-cuff math, reasoning, and so on.

    Another way of putting it is that each person should figure out how much the target vehicle will save him, not just compare mpg rankings and disregard the less efficient choices that are actually within his budget.

  7. statnut says:

    @Coder4Life: Yeah really.

  8. Farquar says:

    @Skiffer: I am so smart. S M R T.

  9. Skiffer says:

    @Farquar: Me fail English?!? That’s umpossible!

    Let’s turn this thread into nothing but Simpsons quotes…

  10. mavrick67 says:

    @Coder4Life: 50% of $1000 is $500 and 50% of $600 is $300, how is that crap?
    . . . unless you work for Safeway where a dozen is 12

  11. CRNewsom says:

    @Coder4Life: You are correct and so very wrong at the same time. If a person saves 50% over what they are used to spending, and they are used to spending a fortune, the return is much better. The rate of return is different, but my wallet doesn’t measure rates very well. It does, however, measure extra cash well.

  12. SaveMeJeebus says:

    The internet? That thing still around?

  13. PunditGuy says:

    The sedan to hybrid family spends $800 a year on fuel @ $4 a gallon. The SUV to wagon family spends $2000 a year.

    So, SUV to hybrid saves nearly $5000 after just over four years. Unless you’re a man named Brady, WTF do you need all that SUV space for anyway?

  14. PunditGuy says:

    Sorry, that’s wagon to hybrid.

  15. rbb says:

    This is just a sad commentary on the poor math skills of the average American. This information ($$$ is already present on every new vehicle sticker and from the epa website.

    Furthermore, the article does not even mention that any gains in fuel efficiency may be lost by the cost of trading in avehicle, the higher cost of a new vehicle, higher insurance costs, etc. Sometimes, it is cheaper to stay with the guzzler…

  16. milqtost says:

    @PunditGuy: Meanwhile buying the new Hybrid only cost the family $30000 (plus interest if they don’t pay cash)! Big savings for all!

  17. @SaveMeJeebus: We call it Interslice.

  18. kc2idf says:

    I suspect this is why Europeans (except the English, who still use MPG, as far as I know) measure fuel economy in litres per 100km, effectively pre-inverting the number.

    @sleze69: Depends on your goal. On this board, miles/$ or km/$ is a perfectly appropriate metric. Others may consider instead miles/BTU or km/J (in which Diesel fares about the same as gasoline). From a deeply environmental perspective, you may want to go even further and go to miles/bbl crude, in order to get down to the bottom of how much of the black stuff actually needs to come out of the ground and go into the air to cover your travel needs.

  19. jpx72x says:

    @Coder4Life: Sorry, but my paycheck doesn’t come in percentages, and they don’t sell gas that way, either.

  20. seanSF says:

    Two things, all math aside: 1) We can all (ok, most) do with smaller cars, and 2) When do we get the wagon that can easily carry the three kids and gets 50 miles to the gallon??

  21. legwork says:

    Hostile posters already? Are you guys claiming the math is wrong, or just that it’s an optimistic approach?

    To me the OP is reminding people to view the decision from multiple perspectives. i.e. While our family can’t give up the Expedition for a Metro, we could switch to something that would save enough coin to make it worthwhile.

    Results come all the easier when shoppers stop looking at a new Prius as the glory ride and instead concentrate on value.

    Something I’m not sure has been mentioned here is reducing insurance costs for a second vehicle by suspending coverage when it isn’t used. We only activate our SUV insurance once a month when we need to pull a trailer.

  22. kingmanic says:

    @milqtost: Which is only $4000 more then the non hybrid of the same model… I don’t think the hybrid versions are 30k more then the non hybrid ones. Unless your buying a maybach?

    The only ones considering the trade are:

    1- Those shopping for a new vehicle
    2- Those saddled with a expensive to run vehicle
    3- Those willing to put money into an ideological belief (ecology).

  23. justbychance says:

    @seanmcleary:

    I’d like to introduce you to the new Jetta diesel Sportwagen. The kids would have to be small, but it’s a wagon, should get 50+ MPG.

  24. Charred says:

    False savings FTW.

  25. Charred says:

    I eat comments. Om nom nom.

  26. PølάrβǽЯ says:

    @PunditGuy: “Unless you’re a man named Brady, WTF do you need all that SUV space for anyway? “

    It’s not just space, it’s capability. I drive a small 4×4 SUV (Ford Explorer, small compared to most Chevy SUVs) even though I only have two kids. Why? I go places with it that a car or minivan could never go, and not just out of recreation. I live in a rural, mountainous area; four wheel drive and high ground clearance are often required just for friends’ driveways. Also, I often pull a Bayliner 175, a car trailer or a utility trailer.

    Believe it or not, some people actually have good use for their SUVs.

  27. battra92 says:

    @PunditGuy: Unless you’re a man named Brady, WTF do you need all that SUV space for anyway?

    One word: Wheelchairs. My grandmother really could only fit in our old GMC Jimmy which my dad kept until it was really unsafe. He got 15mpg in it but could haul the wheelchair that would not fit in my trunk or any wagon he saw. Hell, it barely fit in the Jimmy!

    He got a 20-22 mpg Tacoma and while not great, it’s not bad either.

    SUVs make sense when they are full. A full 20mpg SUV seating 5 is just as efficient a people mover as a 2 seat 50mpg vehicle. Heck, even a so called Smart Car is actually pretty dumb when you do the math (two people in a truck beats one in Smart and possibly a Prius. Of course, five in a Prius beats an SUV anyday but for some larger families they just don’t make sense.

    Where I’m seeing inefficiency of cars are the people who drive them and how they are used. I also see plenty of full SUVs and empty Priuses.

    When I go to work I see tons of SUVs without anyone in them but the driver so I suggested to my HR dept that we start some sort of company carpooling and now I carpool 2 days a week or more going a mere mile out of my way and he chips in a few bucks a week so we both get a bargain.

  28. jchabotte says:

    Who cares how much you are spending on gas? What matters is the cost of ownership of that car for the 100,000 miles..

    My wife’s car will be paid off in Sept. She had a payment of $300/month.

    Now.. she doesn’t drive around enough for the increased mileage of a new vehicle to offset the cost of a new car payment by saving $300 a month in gas.

    plus insurance on a new car.

    People who complain about the cost of gasoline but then spend money on a new car need their heads examined.

  29. ClayS says:

    @aaron8301:
    Exactly right, and in fact the man named Brady doesn’t need an SUV necessarily. If his issue is seating capacity he lives in the city, a van would probably be a better choice.

  30. Gopher bond says:

    @jchabotte: I wish I could convince my wife of this. When I was young and stupid, I had a car payment. I busted my ass to pay it off and not having a car payment makes a HUGE difference on the family budget. My wife like to trade in after 3 years and get a new car. So yeah, she will forever be paying off a car.

    She complains about the price of gas. I don’t.

  31. @Coder4Life:

    This article is completely crap. I am sorry.

    They both save 50% from what they are used to spending.

    I don’t spend percents, I spend dollars. If they both save 50%, but the second person saves $250 more, I’d rather be the second person.

  32. bohemian says:

    Dump the SUV and buy a used high mpg car FTW!

    We have cut about 75% of our gas consumption by buying a used high mpg car, using it for the majority of our driving by sharing the car back and forth and then cutting how much we drive in total.

    We didn’t realize exactly how much driving we were doing until we started tracking it. The savings in gas by driving the car vs. the SUV pays the car payments.

  33. @SaveMeJeebus:

    The internet? That thing still around?

    Man, it’s all around you right now! Watch out!

  34. jstonemo says:

    My 1999 Chevy Silverado gets 15 mpg and is paid off. I spend about $85/week in fuel.

    I could go buy a “fuel efficient” car that gets 30 mpg for around $400 a month and still have to buy fuel.

    Silverado:
    $340/mo. gas

    “fuel efficient” car:
    $400/mo payment +
    $170/mo gas =
    $570/mo

    Total monthly expenditures are what matters in your budget.

  35. howie_in_az says:

    @bohemian: Or get a high mpg car as the commuter car; chances are people aren’t taking their kids and boats and whatever with them all the time, so why drive the SUV all the time (or at all, but that’s besides the point)? Get an inexpensive commuter car that you drive to/from work, and keep the guzzler in the garage until there’s a family outing that warrants using it.

    Or wait for the sub-$25k 100-mile range electric car that better come rsn.

  36. milqtost says:

    @kingmanic: Except there isn’t a non-hybrid version of the Prius. Which seems to be what everyone holds up as the example here (I’m pretty sure the Tahoe Hybrid doesn’t get 50mpg). But what I really meant was that not everyone has the money to go buy a new car just to save $5000 on gas over 4 years.

  37. nedzeppelin says:

    this is retarded….

    miles per gallon and gallons per mile are practically the same thing.

    1/mpg = gpm. it’s stupid.

    i guess they just mean, for stupid people who can’t do conversions, this might make a car look more efficient.

    a car that gets 25mpg gets 1/25 gpm. woooooooo simple math.

  38. stevejust says:

    @milqtost: I bought my brand new honda civic hybrid for $18,600 in 2004. The alleged costs of new hybrids are greatly over exaggerated.

    Moreover, it’s equipped comprable to a $15,000 Civic LX. So I paid $3,600 more for the hybrid. But then I got the $2,000 tax credit in 2004. So I paid $1,600 more for the Civic. Doesn’t take too long to save that premium here in Los Angeles where gas is $4.69 a gallon.

  39. balthisar says:

    The LX is the stripped down Civic (you know, since you mentioned equipment — I owned an Si and an EX, but prefer Lincolns now). Also, Priuses and most other hybrids now have waiting lists and people paying OVER sticker. Tax credits are gone. It’d be nice if everyone could afford/acquire a hybrid, but it’s not just economically feasible for everyone. My own car is paid for — there’s not even a used car that would be worth the trouble of changing into just for a 30%-50% increase in mileage (gotta consider comfort, too).

  40. dondiego87 says:

    To all the commenters doubting whether this story makes any sense… Try actually doing the math. Let’s see how many gallons of gas are used in an average year (15,000 miles)…

    25 mpg: 15,000 miles * (1 gallon / 25 miles) = 600 gallons
    50 mpg: 15,000 miles * (1 gallon / 50 miles) = 300 gallons
    10 mpg: 15,000 miles * (1 gallon / 10 miles) = 1500 gallons
    20 mpg: 15,000 miles * (1 gallon / 20 miles) = 750 gallons

    As you can see, the difference over 15,000 miles between 25 and 50 mpg is only 300 gallons, as compared with the difference between 10 mpg and 20 mpg of 750 gallons. The people going from SUV to station wagon saved 2.5x as much gas as the people going from the sedan to the hybrid sedan!

    I heard this on the NPR: Environment podcast this morning. The interviewee said that a more effective way to visualize fuel savings is to think in terms of “gallons per mile” (which does not equal mpg, as a commenter upstream suggested, except when mpg = 1).

    25 mpg = 0.04 gpm
    50 mpg = 0.02 gpm
    10 mpg = 0.1 gpm
    20 mpg = 0.05 gpm

    Here, you can see that the difference between the sedan and the hybrid is only 0.02 gpm, as compared with the difference of 0.05 between the SUV and station wagon. (Again, a 2.5x difference!) This is a much easier calculation than converting mpg to gal/year, and would be made even easier if the government required this figure to be displayed on cars as is apparently common in Europe.

    (The only problem I have with this whole idea is that going from a 10 mpg SUV to a 20 mpg station wagon still isn’t as good as going from a 10 mpg SUV to a 50 mpg hybrid… But I guess some people really need [or want] the space.)

  41. nedzeppelin says:

    you end up spending the same dollars and burning the same gas whether you consider the mpg or gpm of your new car. thinking about the statistic upside down doesn’t change the car’s fuel efficiency.

    you can do the conversions at home to get to whatever statistic you want, and the car won’t care. it will be just as fuel efficient as always.

  42. plasticredtophat says:

    @jstonemo: your forgeting insurance too…

  43. Geekybiker says:

    In the end I could care less about MPG. I care about $ per mile.

  44. unpolloloco says:

    I’d have to drive 375000 miles to justify the cost of a new prius, given my current car (17-yr-old 25mpg car with next to no resale value vs. a $30000 50mpg prius). This calculation does not count any other costs into the equation, such as insurance (would go WAY up), nor the amount of money I would be making in interest on the $30k I wouldn’t spend. At 5% interest, I could drive 9375 miles a year for essentially free, compared to if had I bought a Pruis.

  45. snoop-blog says:

    hybrids are good at hiding all those extra costs that you don’t think about because you’re only worried about mpg. what about your electric bill going up? I’ve also heard that you have to pay an extra tax in some states for owning a hybrid. those batteries? about 1200 a piece. Anyone who has ever had a battery powered device should know that there’s only so many times you can charge battery before it’s junk. I could go on if I had the time because there are more hidden costs that just what I have here, but I leave in an hour so I need to get all the blogging I can in now!

  46. B says:

    @snoop-blog: Uhhh, you don’t plug in a hybrid, at least until the Volt goes on sale. Nice try, though.

  47. ???/??? says:

    @snoopblog

    There are no plug-in hybrids in production right now. The only slated one is the Chevy Volt, which may never come out by the looks of it. The idea really of plugging it in is not to save incredible amounts of cash, but to reduce the use of foreign oil. Not to mention, you more then likely aren’t looking to plug it into your standard 110V outlet, it’s probably going to be something where you would plug it in at a station. Or possibly you have another 220V line run in your house like your washer.

    And the cost of batteries $1200 is really not something you’d probably consider as an expense on your hybrid. At most, they would have to be changed once later in the life. Compare that to the cost of changing your belts, pulleys, and alternators and the cost offset is not exactly life changing. But again, the biggest benefit of a hybrid is the reduction on foreign oils.

  48. Justafan says:

    I think you also have to consider gallons/occupant/mile. An SUV getting 10 mpg with 5 occupants utilizes 0.02 gallons to move each occupant one mile. This is equivalent to each occupant driving a 50 mpg hybrid.

    This is why buses are such efficient people movers. A bus getting 6 mpg with 30 occupants utilizes only 0.0056 gallons/occupant/mile.

    An SUV full of people can actually cancel out the smug generated by a lone driver in a Prius.

  49. B says:

    @Justafan: You realize that a hybrid can fit 5 people too, right?

  50. TechnoDestructo says:

    To the author of this article, and to every person who thinks there is anything even remotely insightful here: You are to report to your nearest middle-school for re-education. Apparently the last time didn’t take.