The New York Times says that some experts are predicting $4 gas by the Spring.
Gasoline prices, which for months lagged the big run-up in the price of oil, are suddenly rising quickly, with some experts fearing they could hit $4 a gallon by spring. Diesel is hitting new records daily and oil closed at an all-time high on Tuesday of $100.88 a barrel.
The increases could not come at a worse time for the economy. With growth slowing, high energy prices that were once easily absorbed by consumers are now more likely to act as a drag on household budgets, leaving people with less money to spend elsewhere. These costs could exacerbate the nation’s economic woes, piling a fresh energy shock on top of the turmoil in credit and housing.
“The effect of high oil prices today could be the difference between having a recession and not having a recession,” said Kenneth S. Rogoff, a Harvard University economist.
Cheerful. Will you put up with $4 gas or will you begin carpooling, walking, and taking public transit?
Oil Hits a High; Some See $4 Gas by Spring [NYT]
(Photo:greefus groinks)
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@forgottenpassword: As are many of us. I live 15 miles (by freeway) from work — can’t afford to live closer. Public transportation would not get me from point A to point B (although I do live 1/2 mile from a commuter rail station that I can take to the airport, downtown Dallas, or downtown Fort Worth and I do enjoy using it when I can).
I suppose I could bike to work — if I want to get up at 5:30 AM and get to work all sweaty in the summertime.
I would use public transit if it was available but that takes money too, as in higher taxes — which nobody wants.
I was driving down the highway the other day, and I happened to look down into a car with a family in it. It was a Cavalier, so i figure it was probably doing 30 mpg or so with 5 people in it. That’s about 150 man-miles per gallon.
I then considered my own situation. There was just one of me, and I was, at the time, getting about 9 mpg.
It amuses me.
No, I will not stop driving. I’ll just buy some stock in the oil companies.
In Europe, they are paying more already. They still drive. It just you won’t see many SUVs there. Mostly fuel efficient cars. Dump your Hammers people!
@chouchou: I have a hammer. It gets me zero miles per gallon… but it’s damn good at hammering nails.
@RamV10: 9 MPG? Wow! I get at least 15. You should get an F-150!
@SkyeBlue:
I am mad, and will be until gas is at least $5/gallon, due to a $1-2/gallon increase in the federal gas tax. If we want to actually incorporate the externalities of gas consumption (military costs, environmental impact) into its price, the price needs to be a lot higher.
@chouchou: Or could it be that Western Europe is in population decline mode, meaning less kids, and less need for mini-vans and larger vehicles? There are social trends to be considered here, too.
I can see two good things in this:
1) It makes it easier to justify the cost of shiny new bike parts. I bought an old road bike (70′s fuji) and have been fixing it up over the winter, for the cost of about one month’s gas (I don’t live that far from work)
2) Hopefully, more people will take up bike commuting. It’s nice to have the bike lanes by yourself, but it sure would be nice to have people to talk to at stoplights.
Now, we just need to get a little bit of the snow cover melted here in wisconsin so I can actually USE the bike lanes.
@ARP: Well, you raise good points. But don’t forget scare tactics also scare the market and can make it do bad things. I understand some of the other fees may increase, but those fees are mostly optional. You can choose not to renew your license, etc. Some you have to pay, some you dont, but as far as my paycheck, I have 0 say.
I’ve already paid $4/gallon for gas in the US (last year, for a short period). It didn’t do anything to my consumption at all, but it made me smile when I saw SUVs near me at the pump.
I also lived abroad for a bit, and paid $7/gallon. Again, it didn’t affect my usage at all, but in that country it was clear that people were more careful about buying overly large cars.
And contrary to what Erwos said, it had nothing to do with population decline. The trend in smaller-sized vehicles was especially clear in commercial vehicles, where contractors and such used *much* smaller trucks than would be used in the US.
@Bladefist: I actually lube my bike chain with rendered rush limbaugh fat. That cigar-chomping fat bastard’s corpse should keep me going for years!
Gas in Montreal is currently $4.29 USD per gallon, and this is as low as it ever gets. Prices occasionally raise as high as $4.67 USD per gallon.
Americans complaining about high gas prices need to be slapped. The US has incredibly low gas prices.
I’m 65 miles from work, and I’ve already taken measures against higher gas prices by trading in a Pontiac Grand Am for a new Prius. My monthly payments are marginally higher, but I’m saving more in fuel than that increase. I took a trip a few weeks ago where I averaged 53mpg, so I’m not complaining, or at least not as much I used to.
Still, the increase in fuel prices will outpace increases to my income, so it’s a losing proposition either way.
I miss being a freelancer working at home.
sorry to say this but I see gas hitting $5 by summer. I drive a Honda Civic and it gets an average of 37MPG still this is bad news for the economy but good news for gren research and new technology being pushed foward.
Gas will become a thing of the past very soon with the way gas prices are going.
I already carpool to save on gas/bridge tolls. Gas at over $3/gallon is putting a dent in our spending, if it hits $4+ we’ll stop eating out and buying ‘stuff’ since that money will go to the oil companies.
We’ve already started cutting back and it’s just going to get worse.
@AstroPig7: Hear, hear, you lucky bastard
@B: that is partly true, the supply part is controlled by the refineries, too few refineries and those that are producing are doing so at a reduced amt as well as some refineries are closed.
The gas companies have us by the balls they can control the flow of gas as much as they want. Oil isn’t the problem there is plenty of that its refining it.
I’m so glad I can bike or T to work! I can laugh at all the suckers paying more for their commute! 4$ gas won’t affect me!
…except for the fact that all the stuff I buy, like food, is shipped in on trucks. Which use gas. And who will have to absorb the increased cost of shipping?
Oh, me.
Nuts.
@Hawkins: I have a car that gets 75 miles per gallon. Honda Insight. Actually, my best tank of gas was 74 point something, but I average over 70 easy when temperatures are above 50 degrees outside. Cold months net me 60-65mpg. Best. Car. Ever.
This is not a bad thing. People should drive less for any number of reasons.
@SkyeBlue:
“I guess Bush and all his Saudi and oil buddy friends are going to keep making record profits until the very minute Bush walks out of the White House for the last time.
He has served his masters quite well.”
To all of you Bush haters out there,one question:
What fucking planet do you call home ?
Are you so ignorant of the fact that crude oil prices are set on a world market (supply and demand)that you make statements like the one above? George Bush (or Bill Clinton or Andrew Jackson) have about as much control over the price of oil as they have over the weather.(This will come as a great surprise to hurricane Katrina survivors).The fact is,if you would just turn the sound down on “American Idol” and pick up a book,since GWB came into office,there have been a couple of little obscure countries you may have heard of called China and India that have almost doubled their consumption of oil.That has had an effect on price.American consumers have fallen in love with big,honking Dreadnought Class- SUV’s and they don’t exactly sip fuel.
Now. Even if you don’t believe me,how about our wonderful northern neighbors,Canada ? I have seen a couple of posts from the Canookies above and they seem to have a handle on the fact that the price goes up and the price goes down. Who do they blame ? George Bush is just a politician with a funny accent and mangled diction to them,not some potentate that choreographs their every thought and action.For God’s sake,stop getting your political philosophy from a fucking bumper sticker and think for yourself.
This may sound naive so don’t flame me but…what’s the problem? Granted, I live in the city and take public transit and don’t own a car but the last time I did (~4 yrs ago…*sigh* I miss that car…), gas was roughly $2.80-3/gal. Taking into account rising inflation and rising worldwide demand as developing countries increase infrastructure, why shouldn’t gas raise in price by $1-1.50 in 4 years? Nearly everything else has.
@timsgm1418: “maybe it’s time to lower the taxes on the gas so we can afford it?”
Great idea! In a few years, the roads and bridges won’t be passable anymore, then none of us will have to use any gas!
You’re a genius!
If anything, gas taxes should be increased. Maybe it would get some of the ridiculous gas-guzzling SUVs off the streets and put people back in smaller, more efficient cars that don’t promote gross overconsumption.
@chouchou: this is also a result of europe’s cities having been developed hundreds, if not thousands, of years before the automobile. pedestrians, cyclists, and rail passengers come first as a result of this. many americans are forced to drive to work/to run errands because of the poor planning practices of the past 50 years. watch “taken for a ride” for more info – very fascinating, and sad.
@RamV10: I computer my mileage in man-miles, too, which is why the holier-than-thou, no cruise-control standard Prius drivers annoy me.
Here in California, many hybrid owners get to to use the carpool lane as solo drivers while getting man-mileage similar to a V6 Ford Explorer with two people in it.
Meanwhile, my carpool buddy and I in my 2007 Civic are getting about 65 man-miles to the gallon, reducing congestion, and getting a more productive start to the say than listening to the radio or gabbing on the phone.
@AD8BC: NOOOOOOOOOOO! DO NOT GET A FOCUS! Don’t buy into the marketing gimmics of the Farcus they are junk. I have only known one that made it to 100,000 miles most die at 60.
I drive to work bc it’s a five-minute drive but a forty-minute bus ride. Sucks my school is so far away. I’ll have to suck it up. Not in a position to buy a new fuel-efficient car. It’s sad there really are no good options to get around down in Miami. I was thinking of getting a bike, but it will probably get stolen. sigh.
Enough.
A line was drawn at 3/gallon and it has been crossed, blatantly, stupidly, and with ignorance to the consequences.
Enough.
The pols want to duke it out over the credit market and ignore the weakening dollar, which is having a cascading effect on the domestic market and oil prices. To that I say Enough.
Decisive action is required before this spirals out of control any further! By that I mean beefing up the value of the dollar, no matter what it takes. A strong dollar equals a strong domestic economy and low prices.
The pols may say we are entering a recession, I say we are in the middle and the worst is yet to come.
@Snarkysnake: I agree. I laugh at these people who think Hilary/Barack could do any better. I am a Republican and fed up with Bush.
Time to create a new CommonSense party!
PS there’s also this book out about how the cost of the war in Iraq is directly related to our own recession. We don’t have the money for anything else.
**insert slam on unnecessary SUV and truck use here**
In all seriousness though, this sucks for all – because higher gas prices continue to trickle down through everything else in life. Time to build that bombshelter…
@AstroPig7:
Cheers
Walking? No. I live 9 miles but have been biking it for five years in most weather (barring slushy/icy streets)
Love it and wouldn’t have it any other way.
Hmm higher gas prices…does that mean less people on the road. Looks like my commute will be quicker on 93 and 495.
@Froggmann: You know, with all due respect those you know (and I do value your opinion, mind you), I hear similar things about every car I consider. Except for the foreign Hondas or Toyotas which we simply cannot afford (we are paying cash).
We are replacing a Saturn SL2 from 2001 that we bought new and put 144,000 miles on it. It’s only now starting to burn oil. People told me all along that it wouldn’t go past 70 or 80.
When taking everything into account (online reviews, safety, and price) we found the Focus to be our best choice, especially when we can get it certified and with a goodly remainder of factory warranty.
Another thing to consider is age/miles… My wife will put 60K on the car in two years (I don’t want to hear any bitching from the peanut gallery about how she should drive less and bike to work, she does home healthcare and her job entails going to patients homes all over Dallas/FortWorth). With the certified warranty on the drivetrain, added to the fact that I change the oil religiously every 4000 miles (or, for her, more like every 6-8 weeks), I’m willing to take the gamble…. especially since I found a Ford dealer that needs to sell a whole lot of cars by Friday (the end of the month).
But thanks for the tip, Froggmann. I do appreciate the fact that there are lemons out there.
Its all about profits. Big business knows they answer to no-one.
And the “Experts”! Its just a con to see the response and get us “Used” to hearing it.
@Snarkysnake: You did a better job of saying what I was trying to say up above. But facts have no place on a liberal internet. All you have is Emotions, and a need for someone to blame. Your ‘American idol’ comment was hilarious, because the intelligent people know these things. But let them screw and holler at bush, let them dominate the web w/ their ideologies, and their hate for people like us. Let them vote in Obama, since they think he is their savior. They have no idea what is about to hit them. It’s not just a lack of understanding in how things work, but a lack of interest to find out and trust the media, and politicans.
Just picked up a new car, expect to save a boat load of cash now that I’m not car sharing with someone (and driving back and forth three times a day more then I had to).
NewsFutures ([us.newsfutures.com]) has a trading market on this topic: $4 gas by July 1st. It’s currently only at 16%, meaning that the consensus of the traders is that there is only a 16% chance that there will be $4 gas on or before July 1st.
I think we had it too good for too long and now is the time to take action. My hat’s off to the people who are making a difference in car pooling and using the public transit. I live in the largest ethanol producing state in the nation and I can tell you that ethanol is not a solution, but possible a detriment to the reduction in oil dependence due to the fact that it eats up tons of oil-based fuels to plant, harvest and produce, plus it is subsidized by the US government to keep the price down…what a hoax.
I only wish I could afford a new hybrid car, or electric. Totally agree with the war being a problem, or it is just some coincidence?…..don’t think so.
Try living in the Midwest where you have to drive literally everywhere for everything. This truly sucks. The only solution is to take matters in your own hands because Uncle Sam will never help as long as there are oil lobbyists.
@Nighthawke:
The notion of a “fair price” is a popular populist trope that dates back forever, but in practice price fixing fails to manage resources properly. The result is unmitigated demand that leads to rationing and the “breadline” effect. Feel free to examine human history for a time when price fixing resulted in a positive experience for anyone.
Strengthening the dollar is a good idea, however. I’m totally behind that. The quickest way is to trim the federal budget deficit, which means less entitlement spending. The best way is to do that and go a step further and limit our potential debt exposure – which means drastic limitations on social security spending and enough with the “subsidized health care” drumbeat.
@Snarkysnake: There are plenty of people who hate Bush for perfectly reasonable and logical reasons.
Please don’t make the common mistake of assuming that we all have silly and invalid reasons just because a few do.
It’s a shame that some people feel the need to politicize everything but your response is equally ham-handed and idiotic.
I did a little research project and discovered it actually costs MORE for me to take the bus to work, and I miss out on the time I spend in the morning exercising. Also, because I exercise, no one I know gets to work at 630am and leaves at 515pm.
Atlanta SUCKS for mass transit. Most people commute in from the suburbs, and mass transit doesn’t go there because those counties are afraid it will bring in an undesirable element.
@Bladefist: Thank you for neatly demonstrating my point that there are complete and total idiots in all points of the idealogical spectrum.
You, for an example, are a brain-free idiot on the right-hand side of the world.
Only the dumbest of people would look at the disaster in Iraq and think that the answer is “keep doing what we’re doing”, yet that is what Republicans propose. It’s too bad you don’t have the balls to go get shot in the face in Iraq, you dumb, hypocritical keyboard warrior.
Also, I love that the staunch GOP idiots in this thread continue to claim that there was no possible way that politicians could have affected gas prices.
As though an enormous, expensive war that doubled our national debt has no relationship (whatsoever) to a weak dollar.
Idiots, all of em.
@Bladefist: I tend to disagree somewhat. This is the interested parties setting the stage so that they can jack the price up to $3.50 or $3.75, and everyone will go “Whew! Glad we didn’t hit that $4 mark they were worried we would hit! We got lucky!”. of course, we really got screwed. Again.
Hmm…looks like I’ll be going to class less than usual.
@ihateauditions: Thanks for the typical liberal response script. You’re like blockbuster, do you have like a firefox plugin with 3 buttons for 3 responses to conservs? Lol
I cut my driving by 1000 miles per year by working from home one day a week. I now drive about 7000 miles per year and my car gets over 35 MPG, so I basically buy 200 gallons of gas a year. If gas prices go up $1 it’s not going cost me that much more at the pump. But the cost of everything else is sure to be affected, too, since so much of what we buy is trucked or flown long distances.
I may try biking to work one day a week once the weather turns nice. It should be good for my heart and my wallet.
I will return to taking the bus as soon as the weather warms. I took the bus for the better part of last year, and, for the most part, was the only employee of my company doing so (save for a temp who was with us for a few weeks).
@Bladefist:
That’s a good point.
Robert Reich made a similar argument in his book Supercapitalism. Many of us complain about the labor practices of Wal-Mart or the oil companies, Haliburton, etc., but we still want those companies’ stock in our portfolios because they make a decent return.
There is a tradeoff to be made here, and funding both sides is obviously counterproductive. High wages, low prices, and high return simply cannot happen. You can only get 2 of the 3.
@AD8BC: My wife’s focus is at 170k and going strong. The focus hatchback:
1) Gets great mileage
2) Has an enormous amount of cargo room for such a small car. I always liken it to merlin’s bag in sword and the stone, cause you just keep stuffing crap in long after it should be full.
3) Has towed my isuzu trooper when the clutch went out.
4) just last weekend, we made two trips from the home depot to our house with in excess of a thousand pounds of paving stones in the back each trip.
5) Had one issue with the transmission sensor (covered by warranty) and had the water pump fail once ($600).
Overall, I’d recommend it.